On the eve of our first free practice of the season, nothing is certain following a dramatic and explosive finish to 2021 Formula One. New car regulations, tyre rules and drivers roll out for the first time this weekend in the Bahrain Grand Prix. What can we expect in (hopefully) one of the most competitive race seasons to date?
RACE WINNER: MAX VERSTAPPEN (+175)
With the pecking order of top teams scrambled from car changes, last season’s constant force remains above the rest. Max Verstappen’s championship-winning 2021 featured an abundance of pole positions, laps led and race wins.
A strong end to testing saw Vertsappen finish with the second fastest lap on Day 2 and the fastest on the final Bahrain testing day. The new look Red Bull Racing car appears to be on the faster side of the field and should continue last season’s pace.
Verstappen boasts one of the best qualifying records at Bahrain among the field, behind only Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas. With the speed of the Mercedes in doubt, don’t be surprised if Verstappen qualifies in front and leads wire-to-wire for his first ever race win in Bahrain.
OTHER POTENTIAL PODIUM FINISHERS: GEORGE RUSSELL (+225)
Despite reservations about their pace, the Mercedes duo of Hamilton and George Russell are my favorites to fill out the podium. Hamilton boasts an extensive qualifying (P3.4) and finishing average (P1.6) over his last five races in Bahrain. As one of the greatest racers of all time, he remains a favorite to land on the podium, per the usual.
No one forgets Russell’s nearly legendary performance at Bahrain two years ago. The driver-team pairing finally comes to fruition with high expectations for Russell with a frontrunner.
Mercedes’ decision to move on from Bottas, one of the key ingredients in their dominance, paints Russell as their next step. His previous season at Williams showcased effective performance in suboptimal settings and his ability to adapt to various race conditions. The previous experience with Mercedes makes the only unfamiliar element in Bahrain the new car, which Russell should take to immediately. His skill makes him my favorite outside shot at a podium this weekend, if not every race weekend of 2022.
THE REST OF THE TOP 6: LANDO NORRIS (+125)
What about the Ferraris? Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc both found pace during the testing days. Both are trendy picks to finish among the top five or place on the podium. Sporting strong finishes at Bahrain previously, Sainz and Leclerc vault Ferrari among the title contenders once again. While Hamilton and Alpine’s Fernando Alonso believe Ferrari owns the fastest car on the track, I want to see it before I believe it.
Another wildcard with a shot at a podium finish, Sergio Perez always threatens for a race win. The Red Bull driver possesses the speed, especially in Bahrain, to make noise at the front. As likely as a top six finish is, his volatility in results last season makes predicting a strong race day more than nerve wracking.
Gambling on Perez or one of the Ferrari drivers to fall out of the top six makes the outside odds for Lando Norris a layup. Norris races well in Bahrain, with top ten results in all four contests at the track. McLaren teammate Daniel Ricciardo got limited practice in the new car due to COVID-19, leaving Norris the favorite to lead them during the weekend. I expect him to finish among the leaders.
QUICK HITS: THE MIDFIELD
- Sebastian Vettel unfortunately delayed his season debut till the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix because of a positive COVID-19 test. Nico Hülkenburg takes his place along Lance Stroll for Aston Martin.
- Alpine and AlphaTauri both showcased impressive pace during Bahrain testing. Keep an eye on Pierre Gasly and Alonso, who should compete for top ten spots.
- Kevin Magnussen returns to Haas for 2022 after a year removed from the American outfit. A more competitive car for the veteran and teammate Mick Schumacher may vault Haas into the fray once again.
- Alex Albon also returns to F1 for Williams, who hope he captures the form Russell displayed for them the previous season.
- New threads for Bottas leave the Alfa Romeo driver as an afterthought. Watch for him to out-qualify expectations on Saturday.
- Alfa Romeo also debut F1 rookie Guanyu Zhou this weekend, following his successful year in Formula 2 with Virtuosi Racing.
Check back after practice and qualifying for updated thoughts and more surrounding the Bahrain GP.
Wolveridge Langan 