Multiple top scoring offenses are on the ticket in the NHL, while defense seems to be the name of the game in the NBA and MLB tonight. I took a look at the data before teams clash to bring out the best bets this Tuesday.
Here are my favorite bets for tonight, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:
MIAMI HEAT VS ATLANTA HAWKS
In the matchup between a high powered offense and an elite defense, the defense is dominating. The Miami Heat lead the Atlanta Hawks 3-1 in their first round playoff series as they return to Miami for Game 5.
No one has suffered more from Miami’s elite defense than Trae Young. Young, who shot 44.0 percent from the field this season and 35.5 percent from beyond the arc, has been suffocated offensively in this series. He’s 20 for 57 (35.1 FG%) on the floor and 7 for 33 (21.2 3P%) from three in the four games against the Heat.
Young finished the regular season tied for fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points per game. In the postseason, he has yet to eclipse 25 points, with the Heat keeping him under 10 points in both Game 1 and Game 4.
The Hawks have scored less as a whole, averaging under 100 points per game (way under their regular season average of 113.9). With Miami favored at home and fresh off a 24 point win in Game 4 (the Hawks managed only 86 points), I expect the Heat to snuff out Trae Young once again.
PICK: TRAE YOUNG UNDER 25.5 POINTS (-123)
DETROIT RED WINGS VS TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Tonight in Toronto, the Maple Leafs face the Red Wings for the fourth time this season in a classic original six matchup to wind down their season.
The Leafs are hot going into the playoffs. Winners in seven of their last ten, Toronto ranks 2nd in Goals per Game, 6th in Shots per Game and owns the number one Power Play unit in the NHL. Their high-powered offense converts on 27 percent of their man-up opportunities.
Toronto’s weakness is the defense. The Leafs allow 3.13 goals per game, good for 19th in the league. Eight of their last ten contests include at least one team scoring four or more goals, with the UNDER hitting in the other two games.
Here’s the scores of the Maple Leafs three games against the Red Wings this season: 5-4, 7-4 and 10-7. Each one cleared the OVER, no sweat.
The Red Wings are one of the worst teams at preventing goals (31st in the NHL with 3.80 GAA) and history is on the OVER’s side. Another high scoring affair is on the way tonight in Toronto.
PICK: OVER 7.0 GOALS (+105)
Last Friday I talked about how strong pitching contributes to the Orioles reign as the King of the UNDER. Likewise, I mentioned how dominant the Dodgers are against the spread yesterday (both bets won). I like both those bets again today, but for variety’s sake, here’s another West Coast team with a great ATS record.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS CINCINNATI REDS
Although the San Diego Padres have not been as flashy statistically as their NL West rivals, they also do excellently Against the Spread. In the 10 games they’ve won, the Padres have covered every single time.
The Cincinnati Reds struggling certainly helps their case. An extremely slow start leaves the Reds with the worst record in the MLB at 3-13. Cincinnati ranks last in Runs per Game, OBP and second-to-last in Batting Average and ERA.
The Padres and Reds already played a three game series in San Diego, which the Padres swept with ease. They limited the Reds to three total runs in three games, winning 4-1, 6-2 and 6-0. As we already know, the Padres covered in each game.
San Diego should win in Cincinnati as I don’t expect any magical improvement from the Reds at home. When the Padres win, they cover, so I like the spread for them tonight.
Wolveridge Langan 