A trio of OVER/UNDER bets make the list today as the NHL Playoffs get underway and the NBA Playoffs continue the second round. Two games in Miami should come down to defensive efforts, while a goal explosion is headed our way up north.
Check out all the details, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:
MIAMI HEAT VS PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
James Harden and the rest of the 76ers face their toughest test of the season, heading to Miami without Joel Embiid. The star big man suffered a facial fracture late in the 76ers’ clinching effort against the Toronto Raptors. Embiid will sit Game 1 and 2 at least, as Philadelphia challenges a stellar Heat defense without their top scorer.
Miami, who are without Kyle Lowry for Game 1, exhibited elite defense in their first round takedown of the Hawks. The Heat limited Atlanta to 97.4 PPG, well below their season average.
Albeit with Embiid, the 76ers displayed a strong defense front in round one as well. They held the Raptors to 103.2 PPG over six games, three without the elite defensive presence of Matisse Thybulle. Regardless of outcome, a defensive battle is on the way in this second round matchup.
Low-scoring, defensive-centric games tend to be commonplace for the Heat and 76ers. The UNDER hit in three of their four regular season games, with both teams scoring over 100 points only once.
So far this postseason, the UNDER is 9-2 in Miami and Philadelphia games. Even with some key stars missing from both outfits, I don’t expect the trend to change.
PICK: UNDER 209.5 POINTS (-115)
MIAMI MARLINS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Two of the best pitchers this season face off to start the week in the MLB. Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez’ hot starts go head-to-head on the rubber tonight in South Florida.
Few have started better than Gallen this season. The Diamondbacks’ right hander allowed only one earned run through three starts (against the Dodgers and Mets no less). Gallen only gave up six hits in 15 innings of pitching, which included 14 strikeouts. He’s earned his spot in a strong Diamondbacks rotation currently 10th in ERA at 3.28.
Lopez has been equally as excellent for the Marlins. Across four starts, Lopez recorded three wins and only one earned run. 23.1 innings pitched, 13 hits and 23 strikeouts for Lopez, who makes up the Marlins elite pitching rotation (5th in ERA: 3.10). The opposing team has yet to score more than a run in games Lopez starts.
A pitching duel is more than expected tonight, as the Marlins and Diamondbacks rely on strong arms to boost weak bats. Both are in the bottom half of the MLB in Runs per Game, with Arizona only averaging 3.09.
Miami and Arizona have a combined 11-28-1 O/U record, which comes to no surprise. Take the UNDER with star pitching on the mound.
PICK: UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-105)
MINNESOTA WILD VS ST. LOUIS BLUES
A classic Western Conference shootout is on the way between the Wild and Blues, who start their first round playoff series in Minnesota. Great goaltending down the stretch from Victor Husso and newly-acquired Marc-Andre Fleury will take a backseat to two of the most explosive offenses this season.
St. Louis and Minnesota love to score goals. Both teams rank in the top five of Goals per Game with the Blues having the edge at 3.77 to 3.72. We got a sneak preview on this playoff series as the Wild and Blues met three times this season. The Blues took all three, but 28 total goals were scored during the process.
The OVER is 3-0 in Wild-Blues games this season and O6.5 goals tonight gets favorable +100 odds. I know it’s harder to score in playoff hockey, but with a strong history of shootouts and great odds, the OVER seems like a no-brainer selection.
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