Tuesday’s Picks: Making the most of your chances, don’t Buck the trend and more to bet

There’s always more playoff action in May, as both the first round of the NHL Playoffs and second round of the NBA Playoffs continue today. A pair of shutdown teams built for the postseason feature in my favorite bets of Tuesday, with an MLB divisional showdown joining as well.

Here are my best bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

NEW YORK RANGERS VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

To say the Rangers have got the better of the Penguins this season would be an understatement. The Rangers won three of four versus the Penguins in the regular season, taking both games at home. They play in Madison Square Garden tonight in Game 1 of their playoff series.

Pittsburgh averaged 3.32 goals per game (11th) but couldn’t score more than twice in any game against New York in 2022. Igor Shesterkin is the big reason why, leading the NHL in save percentage (.935) and GAA (2.07).

Despite controlling the puck more, shooting more and creating more chances than the Rangers, the Penguins struggle to convert. New York boasts a higher conversion rate at even strength (9.4 shooting percentage to 9.0 for PIT) and a significantly better power-play unit (25.46 to 20.41 PP%).

Without starting goalie Tristen Jarry for the first two games, the Penguins are clear underdogs to a Ranger’s team that should excel when goals are harder to come by. They’ll take Game 1 at home tonight. 

PICK: NEW YORK RANGERS (-125)

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BOSTON CELTICS VS MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Last Wednesday, I mentioned the UNDER was undefeated in the Bucks’ postseason games. Their UNDER record is now improved to 6-0, as they look to steal another game from the Celtics in Boston.

Milwaukee’s improved playoff defense continues to dominate opposing teams. They lead the NBA in points allowed this postseason at 94.2. Opposing teams scored 100 points against the Bucks only twice through six playoff games.

Boston’s defense isn’t too shabby either, ranking 5th among remaining teams at 107.4 points allowed per game.

The UNDER will be in play once again. Among all second round playoff teams, only the Mavericks score less than the Bucks and Celtics, who average 108.6 and 108.3 points per game respectively this postseason. 

PICK: UNDER 215.5 POINTS (-115)

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MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS CINCINNATI REDS

The Brewers batting finally caught up to their pitching. Ranked third in the MLB in ERA (3.01), the Brew Crew rattled off 20 runs over a three game series win against the Chicago Cubs. Milwaukee is 7-3 in their last ten and sitting pretty atop the NL Central.

Already 11.5 games back on the Brewers are the Reds. Cincinnati couldn’t possibly have a worse start to a season. Dead last in the MLB at 3-19 and ranked in the bottom two of almost every major stat. 29th in runs per game, 29th in batting averages, 29th in on base percentage and 30th in ERA, allowing a whopping total of 6.15 earned runs per game.

To make matters worse, the Reds are one of the worst teams against the spread this season, with a 6-16 ATS record. The Brewers are favored (rightfully so) and should pile on the runs against the Reds. Brandon Woodruff opens the pitching for Milwaukee, who are 3-1 against the spread when he starts. 

PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5 (-105)

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