With the Colorado Avalanche eliminating the Edmonton Oilers last night, only two other playoff series remain for this week. I took a look at both the NBA Finals and NHL Eastern Conference Finals and picked out my best bets for the remainder of each series.
Igor Shesterkin should be active again tonight in Tampa Bay and the Warriors key defensive adjustments could continue to sway this series in their favor.
Check out the in-depth analysis for my favorite picks in both series:
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS NEW YORK RANGERS
Despite trailing in the series, the Lightning continue to outplay the Rangers in the majority of each game. Tampa Bay led all three games in the Eastern Conference Finals in shots and dominated the advanced metrics, with a CORSI For percentage (CF%) at 57.86%.
Game 3 showcased how high volume and strong play contributes to wins. The Lightning controlled the game with a CF% of 64.2%. Tampa Bay recorded 52 shots against New York netminder Igor Shesterkin, for a well earned 3-2 win.
The Rangers have played the Lightning close all season and showed they can generate wins relying on Shesterkin, so both the Tampa Bay Moneyline and Spread aren’t very enticing.
Tampa Bay’s dominance will lead to a plethora of shots however, so taking the OVER on 33.5 saves for Shesterkin is a no-brainer. New York lives and dies by their goaltender and he’ll be busy in another Tampa Bay home game tonight.
PICK: IGOR SHESTERKIN OVER 33.5 SAVES (-125)
BOSTON CELTICS VS GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Splitting their first two home games of the NBA Finals isn’t ideal, but Game 2’s stellar defensive effort from the Warriors is encouraging heading to Boston tomorrow night.
The return of Gary Payton II cannot be understated. Payton’s defensive prowess on Jayson Tatum gave Draymond Green the ability to lock in on Jaylen Brown, who got off to a hot start in Game 2. After the first quarter, Brown was 1-for-11, scoring only four points. Thinking Basketball goes into greater detail on what the switch-up meant for the Warriors here.
The change in defensive coverage definitely shows. The Celtics’ star duo have been offensive powerhouses throughout the NBA Playoffs. Tatum (.578 TS%) and Brown (.582 TS%) boast a 109 and 108 ORtg respectively in the 2022 postseason. In the NBA Finals against Golden State, Tatum (.469 TS%) and Brown’s (.476 TS%) ORtg continue to drop, with Brown’s at 93 per 100 possessions this series.
The Warriors have led for the majority of the finals and continue to dominate in the third quarter. They’re 2-0 against the Celtics this year when Gary Payton II plays and he’ll be back again tomorrow in Boston. The Moneyline on the Warriors away is too enticing to not entertain.
PICK: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+135)
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Wolveridge Langan 