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Dynasty Player Breakdown: Tyler Shough

TYLER SHOUGH


Quarterback
University of Louisville
25 years old
6’5”
225 pounds
Drafted No.40 to the New Orleans Saints


2024 STATS

3,195 air yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs
244 completions on 389 attempts, 62.7 completion percentage
8.2 yards per attempt
19 rush yards, 1 TD
42 attempts
0.5 yards per attempt


WHAT’S THE EVALUATION?

A late college football bloomer and draft riser, Louisville’s Tyler Shough is one of the oldest quarterbacks to come out of the draft this year. 

The age is evident in his football IQ. He took under center snaps and ran play action passes from right at the line and in the shotgun. He throws the ball away to avoid bad sacks. He keeps his eyes downfield on scrambles but will still take free yards on the ground. All signs point to an experienced, smart quarterback. 

But, if I’m being honest, that is where most of the positives end. Despite impressive accuracy rolling out of the pocket, Shough struggles to consistently make accurate throws. 

Delivering accurate throws was especially challenging on downfield targets or with defenders bearing down on him in the pocket.  

All of Shough’s noticeable experience appears nonexistent in his footwork. He is jumpy, skittish almost, in the pocket and tends to drift backward instead of stepping into throws. 

It is worth noting Shough is a better athlete than the stats give him credit for but he is still a far cry from an elite athletic prospect. 


EXPECTATIONS

Any way you slice it, Shough is old for a quarterback entering the league and did not show NFL-level promise until his seventh season in college. 

While experience is always a plus, it is hard to imagine Shough fixing bad habits or developing any skills to aid him in the league at this point in his career. 

At his best, Shough is capable of making the right decision to maximize his abilities. 

But at his, seemingly more frequent, worst? Shough is inaccurate and a sitting duck, bouncing around the pocket waiting to be picked off by faster, stronger NFL defenses. 


FANTASY FALLOUT

No matter which version of Shough you think will appear, he has a strong chance to start any or all of the New Orleans Saints games this year. 

It is worth taking a flier on Shough given the situation he walks into. Running back Alvin Kamara provides a strong safety valve as a checkdown option and Chris Olave is the highlight of a solid receiving core. 

His running ability is not going to create any reliable fantasy value and I think it is more than likely he falls in the bottom third of starting quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points, even if the upside case hits. 

Final Verdict: Late third round pick

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Dynasty Player Breakdown: Jaxson Dart

JAXSON DART


Quarterback
Ole Miss
22 years old
6’2”
215 pounds
Drafted No.25 to the New York Giants


2024 STATS

4,279 air yards, 29 TDs, 6 INTs
276 completions on 398 attempts, 69.3 completion percentage
10.8 yards per attempt
495 rush yards, 3 TDs, 0 TOs
124 attempts
4.0 yards per attempt


WHAT’S THE EVALUATION?

Despite being the second quarterback off the draft board and a first round pick, Jaxson Dart leaves a lot to be desired as a thrower and decision maker. 

The number one thing that stood out to me was his poor pocket presence and movement. Dart appears very uncomfortable in the pocket, his feet are scattered and he struggles to escape defensive pressure to the outside.  

Part of the pocket struggles might stem from his offensive schooling at Ole Miss, as the playbook constituted a primarily one-read, RPO-heavy offense out of the shotgun. 

Dart’s poor decision making is amplified after initial reads are closed off and his accuracy on throws is significantly worse as plays extend. 

Accuracy issues manifested in the downfield passing game frequently as Dart routinely underthrew or overthrew long balls, despite appearing to have sufficient arm strength and the ability to throw with touch. 

Dart is a willing runner with the ability to pick up significant yardage off of his straight line speed and is not afraid to run through contact. 


EXPECTATIONS

It is hard to count Dart out given his ability and willingness to run the ball, but the amount of red flags displayed in his decision making and passing attempts are abundant. 

A part of me wonders if New York Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll went after Dart because he shares a similar power running style to other quarterbacks Daboll has seen success with, like Josh Allen and Daniel Jones. 

The key difference between them and Dart is the athleticism and frame. He is smaller and less explosive while sharing plenty of the negative traits associated with both as a poor decision maker. 

Additionally, Dart is inexperienced playing under center and is entering a crowded quarterback room that includes Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. 


FANTASY FALLOUT

I will not be surprised if Dart starts five to seven games this season with Daboll potentially coaching for his job, but I expect him to begin the season on the bench. 

The lack of clarity around his playing time muddies an already tough fantasy outlook for Dart. 

Comparing him to Daniel Jones feels a little on the nose but it is hard not to see the similarities with the once-Giant quarterback. 

Jones finished his first season with Daboll as QB9 but has not posted a top 20 fantasy season in his five other years in the NFL, presenting a clear downside picture for Dart’s own fantasy value. 

The upside of a potential QB10 to QB13 range is there but I believe the risk more than outweighs the reward in this scenario. 

Final Verdict: Mid-third round pick

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Dynasty Player Breakdown: Cam Ward

CAM WARD


Quarterback
University of Miami
23 years old
6’2”
219 pounds
Drafted No.1 to the Tennessee Titans


2024 STATS

4,313 air yards, 39 TDs, 7 INTs
305 completions on 454 attempts, 67.2 completion percentage
9.5 yards per attempt
204 rush yards, 4 TDs, 3 TOs
60 attempts
3.4 yards per attempt


WHAT’S THE EVALUATION?

The chatter around this year’s quarterback draft class mainly focused on its comparative weakness to last year and lack of strong prospects overall, but it is led by former University of Miami signal caller Cam Ward. 

The first thing anyone will talk about with Ward is his composure and it is evident on tape. He’s cool, calm, collected, nonchalant, pick your synonym and he embodies it. 

When plays break down, the composure is on full display as he continues to look downfield and while avoiding sacks. Running tends to be a last resort and Ward is not a high tier athlete, but he will take open space and can pick up first downs with his legs when called upon. 

Ward is clearly not a highly mobile escape artist and more athletic opponents could expose his tendency to back up in crumbling pockets instead of stepping up to throw or taking off through gaps. 

Ward’s athleticism is closer to average overall, reflecting the running ability and average level arm strength. The lack of upper tier arm strength is most noticeable in the accuracy drops when he has to push the football into tighter throwing windows. 

Multiple arm angles on throws are completely accessible to Ward, who loves to use sidearm motions to escape pressure in his face. His throws with touch are much better placed than his pushed fastballs across the middle of the field. 


EXPECTATIONS

Ward is hardly a world beater but despite lacking multiple clear strengths he is a well-rounded prospect without any significant weaknesses. 

I do think his lack of high tier athleticism will be more severely punished in the NFL and will make his scrambles less successful despite his calm demeanor. 

A positive will be his ability to deliver throws on-time when the pocket is clean and I can see him eventually leading a run-first offense that finishes a season in the top half of the league.  

Additionally, I watched him take snaps from shotgun and under center during his time at Miami, which should enable Tennessee Titans Head Coach Brian Callahan to install a competent play-action game from under center. 

Ward also has the clearest path to playing time among all rookie quarterbacks and is entering an offense with decent-to-strong skill position players, depending on who you ask. 


FANTASY FALLOUT

The immediate fantasy football comparison that jumped out to me was former Titan Ryan Tannehill, a starter with the potential to succeed in an offense that does not necessarily depend on him to be a one-man army. 

Tannehill averaged QB14 across his six complete seasons as a starter and I think Ward can settle into that slot if the right conditions are met, making him a mid-to-high end QB2 at his ceiling with more potential upside if running is more incorporated into his game. 

While more exciting skill position players should overshadow Ward in dynasty rookie drafts, most teams always need extra quarterback depth and the path to playing time is too attractive to pass up at the end of the first round. 

Final Verdict: Late first round pick

Featured

The Beauty Behind the “Slideshow Player”

Does everyone enjoy music? Of course they do. This is the least profound take ever, in all of history.

But, one of the few things people enjoy more than a specific song or artist, is the opportunity to be the only one who knows about them.

Nothing beats organically finding a hidden gem–a diamond in the rough–among the countless hours upon hours of music streaming to millions everyday. Encountering a seemingly random song that morphs into a can’t-skip favorite is indescribable. You love to listen to it and more importantly, its obscurity adds significance. The serotonin boost from being one of the first to encounter a new banger rivals the long-lost discovery of ancient lands.

Its melody permanently stamps itself in your brain. The song feels special. It’s uniquely yours.

That song is Travis Fulgham.

Or Emmanuel Mudiay. Or Matt Beleskey. Or Mariners CC Sabathia.

That song is, in almost every attribute, a “Slideshow Player.”

THE SLIDESHOW PLAYER

Maybe it’s someone you forgot about. A center who played ten minutes a game on your favorite NBA team. Maybe it’s a random minor league reliever callup who threw a perfect inning while you happened to be watching on a Tuesday night. It could be a quick, meaningless stint on a team by a superstar (think Wizard’s Jordan). The important thing is that YOU remember it.

The Slideshow Player comes from the idea of specific, usually unknown, professional or college athletes. Like that song which slid into your Spotify Discover Weekly, you have no intention of experiencing them, but they hook you in.

Whether it be their goofy name, eccentric on-the-field moves or you think they could be your team’s next big superstar, this athlete becomes a staple among your favorites.

Yet the world forgets them. Maybe in two weeks, months, seasons or years, they fall to the wayside. They couldn’t cut it. You’re enamored by them regardless. Where everyone else moves on, they stick to your mind. Like a catchy rhythm, impossible to describe to someone else because they’ve never even heard of the song. 

CONNECTIONS AND COMMUNITIES

The term Slideshow Player comes from the TikTok trend. I’m not sure who started it but the idea originated from a user creating a picture slideshow cataloging different forgotten players or career moments. Slideshow Players made up these posts.

What catapulted these posts onto For You pages across the app was other users remembering the players. Thousands of comments all reminiscing on a signature highlight of a forgotten third liner. Multiple threads lambasting how a now-European League player was thought to be the next superstar. Tendrils–however brief–of sports past were connecting sports fanatics.

Suddenly, the indie hits of the 2012 Detroit Lions’ Special Teams Unit moved above ground. The shared depth and familiarity of little known players is surprisingly vast. Slideshow Players created not-so-niche internet communities in the comments sections of TikTok posts. The hidden gems wrapped in your Spotify playlist became house party hits.

“How could I ever forget Raymond Felton’s incredible run on the Mavs?”

“Shane Vareen was one of the best passing down backs in the league.”

“Playing dead to beat up Garth Snow is an all-time Matt Barneby highlight”

Sports fans bond over way less, but the positive echo chamber created by Slideshow players is immeasurable. The forgotten memories paint the communal mindscape, with thousands of voices belting out the tunes of Andrew Hammond’s incredible journey towards free McDonald’s for life.  

These players did nothing extraordinary by standard means. Everyone remembers the superstars who’ve won championships, made incredible last-second shots or posted unimaginable season statistics. Not everyone remembers the one-time January 24th, 2014, 42-point masterclass put on by Marcus Thornton.

But for the ones that do, it makes that nostalgia playlist all the more special.  

Featured

F1 Driver Power Rankings: Perez makes big leap following race win

Congratulations to Sergio Perez! His win in Monaco marked the first time the Mexican driver finished in front with both Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen finishing the race. He’s emerged as a real title contender going into the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen remained on top for the second race in a row, while his teammate jumped three spots after his race winning effort. Along with the current Driver’s Standings points, I included every driver’s best performance in Baku.

Ranking Criteria: Assume every 2022 F1 driver raced using the same car. Who would compete for race wins? Who would make up the points scorers? I take a swipe at predicting an even-based grid. 

Monaco GP Rankings | Saudi Arabian GP Rankings

F1 Driver Power Rankings

1. Max Verstappen

Points: 125
Previous Rank: – 1st
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 4th, 2019


2. Lewis Hamilton

Points: 50
Previous Rank: – 2nd
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 1st, 2018


3. Charles Leclerc

Points: 116
Previous Rank: – 3rd
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 4th, 2021


4. Sergio Perez

Points: 110
Previous Rank: 7th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 1st, 2021


5. George Russell

Points: 84
Previous Rank: 4th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 15th, 2019


6. Lando Norris

Points: 48
Previous Rank: 5th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 5th, 2021


7. Valtteri Bottas

Points: 40
Previous Rank: 6th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 1st, 2019


8. Carlos Sainz

Points: 83
Previous Rank: – 8th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 5th, 2018


9. Fernando Alonso

Points: 10
Previous Rank: – 9th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 6th, 2021


10. Sebastian Vettel

Points: 5
Previous Rank: – 10th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 2nd, 2021


11. Pierre Gasly

Points: 6
Previous Rank: 13th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 3rd, 2021


12. Kevin Magnussen

Points: 15
Previous Rank: 11th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 7th, 2017


13. Esteban Ocon

Points: 30
Previous Rank: 14th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 6th, 2017


14. Daniel Ricciardo

Points: 11
Previous Rank: 12th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 1st, 2017


15. Alexander Albon

Points: 3
Previous Rank: – 15th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 11th, 2019


16. Yuki Tsunoda

Points: 11
Previous Rank: – 16th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 7th, 2021


17. Lance Stroll 

Points: 2
Previous Rank: – 17th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 3rd, 2017


18. Mick Schumacher

Points: 0
Previous Rank: – 18th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 13th, 2021


19. Zhou Guanyu

Points: 1
Previous Rank: – 19th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: NA


20. Nicholas Latifi 

Points: 0
Previous Rank: – 20th
Best Azerbaijan GP Finish: 16th, 2021

Featured

Betting Trends: MLB OVER/UNDER Leaders

Looking for an explosive baseball game to take the OVER on? Thanks to TeamRankings, I’ve compiled a list of the best MLB teams at hitting the over this year.

With just a quarter of the regular season gone, there’s plenty of baseball left to bet on. Of all 30 teams, only 11 maintained a positive OVER record. The Guardians are the worst of the best at 23-22-1, while the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels are all level at .500.

Here’s the whole list, including records: 

TeamOVER/UNDER/PUSH
Atlanta29-20-3
Colorado29-21-1
Philadelphia28-21-2
SF Giants28-21-1
Kansas City26-21-2
Cincinnati27-22-1
Seattle27-23-1
NY Mets27-23-3
Chi Cubs25-23-3
St. Louis25-23-3
Cleveland23-22-1
Miami24-24-1
Washington25-25-3
LA Angels24-24-4
Milwaukee24-26-3
LA Dodgers23-26-2
Chi Sox22-25-2
Texas21-24-5
Minnesota23-27-3
Toronto22-27-1
Oakland21-27-5
Tampa Bay21-27-3
Arizona22-29-1
Baltimore22-29-2
NY Yankees22-29-0
San Diego21-28-2
Boston20-27-4
Pittsburgh18-25-6
Detroit16-33-2
Houston13-38-0
Featured

F1 Driver Power Rankings: Shuffling the order before Monaco

After an exciting race in Barcelona, Formula 1 heads to Monaco for one of the most storied races in the history of the sport. 

I’ll run through a race preview for the Monaco Grand Prix later in the week. There’s movement in the rankings since I last evaluated the drivers before Saudi Arabia. I marked down every driver’s previous rank and included their point totals on the season. 

Ranking Criteria: Assume every 2022 F1 driver raced using the same car. Who would compete for race wins? Who would make up the points scorers? I take a swipe at predicting an even-based grid. 

Saudi Arabian GP Rankings

F1 Driver Power Rankings

1. Verstappen

Points: 110
Previous Rank: 2nd


2. Hamilton

Points: 46
Previous Rank: 1st


3. Leclerc

Points: 104
Previous Rank: 3rd


4. Russell

Points: 74
Previous Rank: 6th


5. Norris

Points: 39
Previous Rank: 4th


6. Bottas

Points: 38
Previous Rank: 8th


7. Perez

Points: 85
Previous Rank: 7th


8. Sainz

Points: 65
Previous Rank: 5th


9. Alonso

Points: 4
Previous Rank: 11th


10. Vettel

Points: 4
Previous Rank: 9th


11. Magnussen

Points: 15
Previous Rank: 13th


12. Ricciardo

Points: 11
Previous Rank: 12th


13. Gasly

Points: 6
Previous Rank: 10th


14. Ocon

Points: 30
Previous Rank: 14th


15. Albon

Points: 3
Previous Rank: 15th


16. Tsunoda

Points: 11
Previous Rank: 16th


17. Stroll 

Points: 2
Previous Rank: 19th


18. Schumacher

Points: 0
Previous Rank: 17th


19. Zhou

Points: 1
Previous Rank: 18th


20. Latifi 

Points: 0
Previous Rank: 20th

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Monday’s Picks: Lightning strikes again, a Boston barnburner and more to bet

@wolvsports

You can check out all additional information on each pick at my website (link is in my bio) #sportsbets #nhlplayoffs #jaysontatum #nbaplayoffs #mlb

♬ original sound – Wolveridge Langan

Playoff action continues tonight as the Florida Panthers fend off elimination and the Boston Celtics look to even up their series once again. I picked out my favorite bets from their games tonight, along with a late night baseball moneyline.

Check out my best picks for Monday, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS FLORIDA PANTHERS

The Lightning gets a chance to sweep the Panthers tonight and I expect them to do so. In a series between two fairly matched teams, Tampa Bay looks the better half through their first three playoff games.

The offense functioned more efficiently for the Lightning this series. They’ve outscored the Panthers 11-3 in the postseason, which includes a 4-1 advantage in power play goals. The Lightning got 11 man-up opportunities in the first three games, the Panthers had 10.

Part of the reason Florida struggles to score is because of Andrei Vasilevskiy. The former Vezina winner continues to deliver clutch performances in the postseason. After a subpar start to the Toronto series, Vasilevskiy recorded a 1.32 goals against average and a .959 save percentage in his last five games.

The odds for Tampa Bay to cover the spread is +190. With a chance to eliminate the Panthers at home, the Lightning should continue to stretch the scoring gap tonight. The odds are too good with potential power play and empty net goals on the table. 

PICK: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING -1.5 (+190)

BOSTON CELTICS VS MIAMI HEAT

Despite losing Jimmy Butler half way through Game 3, the Heat held off the Celtics to take back the series lead at 2-1. They play in Boston again tonight, with the OVER/UNDER trend for Heat playoff games flipping in this series.

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Miami held the best record for the UNDER. In their 11 games against the Hawks and 76ers, the Heat hit the UNDER nine times.

The combination of two elite defensive units lowered the O/U line for the start of the Miami-Boston series. So far, the OVER is 3-0 in their games, even with poor scoring nights from Butler and Jayson Tatum. The pair combined for 18 total points in Game 3 and the OVER cleared by four points.

Whether or not Butler plays in Game 4, I still love the OVER. Tatum responds well to poor shooting nights and regardless of who wins, I expect the total to clear 207 points. 

PICK: OVER 207.5 POINTS (-110)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS NEW YORK METS

Continuing their west coast trip, the Mets visit the Giants tonight in San Francisco. Even the loss of ace Max Scherzer can’t seem to slow down the NL East leader, as the Mets started their trip with a series win in Colorado.

New York runs into a struggling Giants team. Losers of four in a row, the Giants are 4-6 in their last ten. San Francisco is already down against New York this season, with the Mets owning a 3-1 record against the Giants this season.

Pitching continues to be a struggle for San Francisco. Alex Cobb, who gets the start tonight, has been part of the problem. Cobb has yet to reach six whole innings in a start and carries a 5.61 ERA because of it.

David Peterson, who starts for New York, also hasn’t had a start with six whole innings pitched. In contrast to Cobb, Peterson continues to be effective in minimal innings, boasting a 1.89 ERA through four starts.

The Mets pitching will be the difference maker in tonight’s matchup, which features New York at +120 to win. The bullpen can finish off a strong start from Peterson. Between eight different pitchers, the Met’s relievers held the Giants to three hits and no runs across ten innings pitched. New York has been too good against San Francisco this year, I like them with the favorable moneyline. 

PICK: NEW YORK METS (+120)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp

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Spanish Grand Prix Picks: Leclerc Leads and Russell’s Consistency

@wolvsports

Should be an exciting race day with all the new pace. I’m still calling a Leclerc Grabd Slam tho 🤝#formula1 #verstappen #leclerc #hamilton

♬ original sound – Wolveridge Langan

We’re back in Europe for another Formula 1 weekend, with the Spanish Grand Prix on the docket. Multiple teams have brought upgrades to Barcelona, which play major factors in our picks for the weekend.

After the first two practices, I looked through and picked out my favorite bets of the race weekend, including a former World Champion (just not the one you think).

Check out my picks, with all odds referenced via BetMGM

SPANISH GRAND PRIX PICKS

RACE WINNER

Two races removed from his last race win in Albert Park, Charles Leclerc is looking primed to come up big in Barcelona. The Ferrari driver already has two top five finishes at the Spanish GP and landed at the top of the times in FP2. Leclerc was one of four drivers to crack the 1:19 mark for his fastest lap time.

Surprisingly, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen couldn’t make the top four in FP2. The World Champion’s time lagged more than three tenths behind Leclerc’s. Even after winning two in a row, I think Verstappen will be behind the pace in Spain. Red Bull’s straight line speed build struggles in Barcelona. Since 2012, Verstappen’s win in 2016 is Red Bull’s only win and was the benefit of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg’s iconic crash.

The pole sitter in Barcelona is arguably one of the most important positions of the season. If Verstappen can’t get into the 1:19’s, expect Leclerc to dominate the weekend. His line for the win is favorable, so I’m taking Leclerc to finish first in Spain.

(Note: Verstappen did finish FP3 in the 1:19’s, so he’ll be more competitive than I previously thought. Leclerc finished ahead of him, so I still prefer the Ferrari driver)

PICK: CHARLES LECLERC RACE WINNER (+150)


TOP 3 FINISH

Despite Mercedes starting the season below their standards, George Russell continues to be consistent for the Silver Arrows. Russell is the only driver to finish in the top five of every single race this season.

An upcoming strong finish from Russell is encouraged by Mercedes’ historical domination in Spain. Both Mercedes drivers have finished on the podium in every season since 2018 and have won seven of the last eight Spanish GPs.

Russell boasted a 1:19.787 in FP2, trailing only Leclerc. He outpaced Hamilton, Carlos Sainz and Verstappen during the session. Russell has shown incredible qualifying and race pace in a maligned Mercedes car this season. With the W13 looking significantly improved this weekend, take the favorable line on Russell to podium. 

PICK: GEORGE RUSSELL TOP 3 (+275)


TOP TEN FINISH

The Ashton Martin upgrades for Spain fell under heavy criticism after resembling the frontrunning Red Bull Rb18. Regardless of the legality involving the changes, the car looks very much improved.

Sebastian Vettel showcased the improvements by posting a 1:20.703 in FP2, only a second behind the leading Leclerc. Vettel’s time was good for eighth in the session, which is very encouraging for a driver who has struggled to finish races this season.

Vettel definitely has the pace to make an impact. In the only race he did finish, the former World Champion climbed five places to finish in the points in Imola. With a stellar track record at Barcelona (fourth best qualifying and finishing average among active drivers), Vettel appears primed to score points for Ashton Martin once again. 

PICK: SEBASTIAN VETTEL TOP 10 (+125)


Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp

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Wednesday Strikeout Props: AL East Aces, Scherzer and Ohtani

@wolvsports

The Cardinals have been good, but Scherzer’s been better. He should light St. Louis up again tonight. #sports #sportsbetting #mlb #mets #scherzer

♬ original sound – Wolveridge Langan

The aces are in action this Wednesday, as multiple high caliber arms take to the mound tonight. I browsed through the matchups and hand selected my best strikeout props of the day, with all odds referenced are from BetMGM: 

KEVIN GAUSMAN VS SEATTLE MARINERS

The Blue Jays got everything they wanted–and more–when they signed Kevin Gausman this offseason. He’s been a strikeout machine. In his seven starts this season, Gausman only has two with less than eight strikeouts.

The 6.5 line is somewhat of an overreaction to a five strikeout game against Cleveland. The Guardians strikeout less than any other team in the league, so I like Gausman to return to form against the Mariners. 

PICK: GAUSMAN OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (-133)

GERRIT COLE VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Gerrit Cole really started heating up towards the end of April. In his last four games, the Yankees’ ace struck out nine, ten, six and nine. The six strikeout outing was against the Royals, who rank fourth in least strikeouts per game.

The Orioles on the other hand, rank fourth in the MLB for most strikeouts with 339 this season. Cole will continue to deal with a favorable line against Baltimore. 

PICK: COLE OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (-158)

MAX SCHERZER VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Not many pitchers are getting the better of the Cardinals’ hitters this season. Good thing Mets ace Max Scherzer is not most pitchers. Scherzer carved up St. Louis earlier this season, striking out ten in seven innings pitched.

His dominance over the Cards extends back seven years. In 12 starts since 2015 against St. Louis, Scherzer only has two games with less then eight K’s. History speaks for itself, take the OVER. 

PICK: SCHERZER OVER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-148)

SHOHEI OHTANI VS TEXAS RANGERS

As good as he’s been, Shohei Ohtani had a tough start against the Rangers already this season. Ohtani got yanked after three and a half innings, giving up six runs with only five strikeouts.

Texas puts the ball in play, ranking fifth for least amount of strikeouts this season. Coupled with the runs they’ve put up on LAA in the first two games of this series, Ohtani might not be in for long. It’s a bit of a gamble, but the odds are favorable for the UNDER on Ohtani strikeouts. 

PICK: OHTANI UNDER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (+121)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

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NHL Playoffs Second Round: Betting Preview and Series Predictions

@wolvsports

Who do you think will take each series? Let me know in the comments. #NHL #nhlplayoffs #calemakar #sportsbetting

♬ original sound – Wolveridge Langan

The second round of the NHL Playoffs gets underway tonight. I breakdown my best bets from each series, as well as voicing my predictions on who goes on to the Conference Finals.

All odds referenced are from BetMGM: 

FLORIDA PANTHERS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Series Betting Stats

  • Split their regular season meetings 2-2
  • The OVER/UNDER also split 2-2
  • Florida covered the spread in three of the four games
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: FLA 3-3, TBL 5-2
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: FLA 2-4, TBL 4-3

This is a really tough series to call. I think Florida should walk away with the series win, despite their top players not producing. Carter Verhaeghe leads the Panthers with 12 points, showcasing how deep the offense goes for Florida. Tampa needs more production to keep up, and Andrei Vasilevskiy looked underwhelming in their series against Toronto. The Lightning should keep things close and I like them against the spread in these games, but Florida’s depth should carry them through. 

SERIES PREDICTION: FLORIDA PANTHERS 4-3
SERIES LEAN: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +1.5 (-185)

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS ST. LOUIS BLUES

Series Betting Stats

  • Colorado 2-1 vs St. Louis in the regular season
  • OVER was 3-0 through those games
  • St. Louis covered the spread in two of the three games
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: COL 3-1, STL 3-3
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: COL 3-1, STL 4-2

Colorado really impressed in their series win over an understaffed Nashville team. Despite Binnington backstopping the end of the Blues series effectively, I think this Avalanche offense is a different beast. Bet on Cale Makar to score. Makar had three points in their three matchups against St. Louis this season and already has ten points in the postseason. If you want better odds, the total goal over is also enticing, but I would rather trust Makar’s consistency. 

SERIES PREDICTION: COLORADO AVALANCHE 4-1
SERIES LEAN: CALE MAKAR OVER 0.5 POINTS (-270)

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW YORK RANGERS

Series Betting Stats

  • Carolina was 3-1 against New York this season
  • The OVER was 3-1 in those games
  • Carolina covered the spread in three of the four games
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: CAR 5-1-1, NYR 7-0
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: CAR 3-4, NYR 3-4

The Hurricanes struggle on both the power play and penalty kill does not make this series look easy. Igor Shesterkin also makes this series very problematic for Carolina, but I will put my faith in them to pull through. Goaltending has been the only factor keeping the Rangers involved this postseason and I think the Hurricanes will do better than Pittsburgh at capitalizing on New York’s missteps. I like the low OVER/UNDER lines for this series and expect both of these teams to keep on going OVER. 

SERIES PREDICTION: CAROLINA HURRICANES 4-3
SERIES LEAN: OVER 5.5 TOTAL GOALS (-120)

CALGARY FLAMES VS EDMONTON OILERS

Series Betting Stats

  • Split their regular season meetings 2-2
  • The OVER was 3-1 in those games
  • The spread record was split 2-2
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: CAL 2-4-1, EDM 3-4
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: CAL 2-5, EDM 4-3

Despite taking seven games to eliminate Dallas, Calgary dominated the Stars for most of the series. I like the Flames way more than the Oilers going into the second round. Calgary is more balanced and a much tougher defensive team than Edmonton. I expect the scoring to get back to normal for Calgary, so keeping up with the high-flying Oilers should not be a problem. Nothing jumps out for me on this series betting wise, but McDavid is producing as always. 

SERIES PREDICTION: CALGARY FLAMES 4-2
SERIES LEAN: CONNOR MCDAVID OVER 1.5 POINTS (-125)

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Monday’s Picks: Dodgers on a roll, Makar producing and more to bet

Lots of major sports action is headed our way tonight. Colorado looks to close out Nashville for a sweep, while Memphis needs players to step up for an ailing Ja Morant. I looked through and found my best picks for Monday, which includes a less than fortunate Pirates team. 

Here are my favorite bets for tonight, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The Dodgers continue their NL Central conquest following a three game sweep of the Cubs with another three game stint at home against the Pirates. They’ve won six in a row and are 7-3 in their last ten.

Los Angeles has impressed all season–and for good reason. The Dodgers rank first in the MLB in runs per game (5.08), ERA (2.11) and defensive efficiency (.749). They score a lot and let up even less.

The Pirates are the other side of the coin. 2-8 in their last ten, including a series loss to the lowly Reds. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.78 runs per game, a 4.83 ERA and only .689 in defensive efficiency.

The best spread for the Dodgers is -2.5, a margin they can eclipse and hold with ease. With Julio Urias on the mound to start, the Dodgers should wrap up their first game at home with a comfortable lead. 

PICK: DODGERS -2.5 (+115)

NASHVILLE PREDATORS VS COLORADO AVALANCHE

With the series on the line, the Avs take on the Preds in Nashville for what could be the first series conclusion in the NHL Playoffs. Up 3-0, Colorado has shown they can win anyway they want. Whether it be the seven goal blowouts in Game 1 and 3, or a tightly contested OT win in Game 2.

Regardless of the game plan or game script, Cale Makar will be involved. The top defenseman on the Avalanche notched seven points in their three games, including the game winner in OT. Makar is prolific against Nashville, with points in three out of four of their regular season matchups.

I expect Colorado to win tonight (as most do). To win, they have to score. If they win by one or by five, Cale Makar will be involved in one way or another. Take the OVER on his point total tonight. 

PICK: CALE MAKAR OVER 0.5 POINTS (-225)

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The obvious pick from the NBA  would be the OVER/UNDER on the Bucks-Celtics game. I talked at length on Milwaukee’s great record for the UNDER last Tuesday. For the sake of variety, I’ll pick one from the Grizzlies-Warriors game tonight, but the Milwaukee UNDER is still very much in play.

The Grizzlies continue to be the Ja Morant show in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. He’s averaged 38.3 points per game against the Warriors and over eight assists. Memphis will have to find a way to cope without him, as he’s expected to miss Game 4 with a knee injury.

The good news (for us at least) is the Grizzlies played 20 games this year without Morant. The two highest scorers in his absence are due for stronger games tonight.

Desmond Bane and Dillion Brooks both averaged just over 19 points when Morant was out during the season. So far this series they’ve been unnoticable, with Bane averaging 10 points per game and Brooks missing a game and a half due to an ejection.

Both are shooting under their expected field goal percentage so expect a bounceback night from either one or both players. There is a large points hole to fill with Morant out, Bane and Brooks will be the first options to add scoring. 

PICK: DESMOND BANE OVER 18.5 (-110)/DILLION BROOKS OVER 18.5 (-105)

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Friday’s Picks: Solar powered spread, rocking Boston like a Hurricane and more to bet

More playoff action to start the weekend! After a break last night, the NBA returns, as the NHL and MLB keep cooking. I scoured through the data and picked out my favorite bets for this Friday. A pair of playoff favorites look to go up 3-0, while the strikeout king is active in Cleveland.

Here are my best picks for tonight, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS PHOENIX SUNS

Including their first two playoff games, the Suns continue to dominate the Mavericks. Phoenix won all five games against the Mavericks this season, including a matchup in Dallas. The Suns head to the Lone Star State once again to face the Mavs tonight.

Their games haven’t been particularly close. The Suns keep the Mavericks at arm’s length and have yet to win a game by less than seven.

Dallas has no answer for the Western Conference’s top seed. The Mavs shot better from beyond the arc and boasted a higher effective field goal percentage than their regular season totals in Games 1 and 2. Luka Doncic is shooting efficiently, over 50 percent from the field and averaging 40 points a game. Everything is going well for the Mavericks and they still got outscored by 27 across two games.

A -1.5 spread with underdog odds for one of the best teams against the spread in basketball? Sign me up. Take the Suns to cover for the third game in a row. 

PICK: PHOENIX SUNS -1.5 (+100) 

BOSTON BRUINS VS CAROLINA HURRICANES

Up 2-0 in the series heading to Boston, the Hurricanes sit firmly in the driver’s seat. Pyotr Kochetkov relieving Antti Raanta in Game 2 barely affected Carolina, who outscored Boston 10-3 in their first two games. 

Carolina dominating Boston is nothing new. This season, the Hurricanes swept the Bruins, 3-0. Two of their wins came in Boston, with the Hurricanes putting up 13 goals to the Bruins’ one.

The matchup is a bad one for Boston. The Bruins were one of the worst precision shooting teams in the regular season, ranking second to last in 5-on-5 shooting percentage (6.8%) and third to last in total shooting percentage (8.5). Carolina is excellent at limiting chances, ranking fourth in the NHL in scoring chances allowed while also sporting top four expected and actual goals against numbers.

Boston is shooting even worse this series, converting on only 4.1 percent of their shots. After trouncing them in the first two games, Carolina is an underdog to win tonight. I’ll take the defensive stalwart on a favorable line, especially when the Hurricanes have scored on nearly 17 percent of their shots this series. 

PICK: CAROLINA HURRICANES (+110)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Blue Jays continue their series against the Guardians today following a tightly contested 6-5 loss yesterday.

Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Toronto tonight. Gausman looks like one of the offseason’s best signings and worth every cent of his massive contract. In his five starts this season, Gausman sports a 2.27 ERA, leads the MLB in FIP (0.51) and struck out a whopping 41 batters.

Gausman struck out eight or more in four of his five starts. He constantly puts pitches over the plate, with no walks yet this season. He’s the only starting pitcher with no walks on the year.

The Blue Jays are starting to let Gausman go deeper in games. In his last three starts, he’s pitched eight, six and seven whole innings. With more batters to face and a strikeout line at 6.5, the OVER is almost too obvious. 

PICK: KEVIN GAUSMAN OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (+105)

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Thursday’s Picks: Reigniting the Flames, buried in an Avalanche and more to bet

The NBA takes a break tonight as series switch venues, but the NHL Playoffs continue! Colorado and Calgary should pile on the goals tonight, while the Brewers continue to dominate the worst team in the MLB.

These are my favorite bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS NASHVILLE PREDATORS

No team started their first round playoff series more explosively than the Colorado Avalanche. Five first period goals ended in a 7-2 for the Avs, who play the Predators again at home tonight.

Colorado and Nashville are no strangers to high-scoring matchups. The Avalanche finished the regular season with a 42-35 OVER/UNDER record. The Predators did even better at 49-33.

In the five games played between the two clubs this season, the OVER is 5-0. Nashville backup goalie David Rittich appeared in three of those games, including the Game 1 blowout. Rittich struggles to keep the puck out in relief for Nashville, sustaining a 3.57 GAA and .886 save percentage. The OVER has hit in nine of his last ten starts.

Whether it’s another thumping for the Avalanche or a contested road battle for the Preds, Game 2 will feature loads of scoring tonight. 

PICK: OVER 6.5 GOALS (-125)

CALGARY FLAMES VS DALLAS STARS

In contrast to their fellow Western Conference contenders, the Calgary Flames shutout the Dallas Stars in a hard fought 1-0 victory to take Game 1 of the series. Heading into Game 2 at home, the Flames have won three in a row against the Stars.

The defensive effort saw Calgary outshoot Dallas 26-16, limiting the Stars chances and capitalizing on one of the few they got. A one goal effort is out of character for the Flames, who averaged 3.59 goals a game this season, good for sixth in the NHL.

The advanced analytics support an offensive bounceback for the Flames, who are fourth in the league in expected goals for at 2.41. Including the low-scoring Game 1, Calgary netted 12 goals in four games against Dallas this season.

A good record against the spread (45-38) plus Dallas’ woes on the road (19-21) have the Flames poised for a stronger offensive performance tonight. Take the favorable spread bet at -1.5. 

PICK: CALGARY FLAMES -1.5 (+110)

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS CINCINNATI REDS

On Tuesday, I bet the Brewers to cover the spread against a flailing Reds team. Milwaukee exceeded my expectations, winning Tuesday 6-3, and Wednesday 18-4.

Until the Reds show signs of life, I will continue to favor strong teams against the spread in their games. The Brewers already covered their first two games and are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten.

Adrian Houser gives the Brewers an even better chance in an advantageous pitching matchup. Houser is fresh off a 2 hit, no earned run start. Hunter Greene, who starts for the Reds today, is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA.

With the hitting coming together to support strong pitching, Milwaukee is dangerous for good teams, let alone the lowly Reds. Ride the Brewers at -1.5 once again tonight. 

PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5 (-115)

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Wednesday’s Picks: Feeling Blue(s) in Minnesota, Snakes for the sweep and more to bet

Familiar faces from Monday’s best picks return this Wednesday but with two new twists. A good pitching matchup makes the difference on the road, as well as special teams in the NHL.

An old faithful UNDER in the NBA rounds of my favorite bets of the day, which include all odds referenced from BetMGM:

MIAMI MARLINS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 

After sneaking away with the first two games of the series, the Diamondbacks go for three in a row tonight against the Marlins.

Arizona gave up four runs in the 7th inning in both of their first two games of the series, but held on to win 5-4 in both contests. The starting pitching continues to be excellent for the Diamondbacks, who got 11 shutout innings from Humberto Castellanos and Zac Gallen through the first two games.

Madison Bumgarner draws the start tonight for the Diamondbacks. He’s been efficient to start the season, with a 1.17 ERA and 15 hits through 23 innings pitched. Elieser Hernandez finishes off the series for the Marlins. Hernandez has a 5.75 ERA and 22 hits across four starts.

This is a more than favorable pitching matchup for the Diamondbacks. Getting Bumgarner against Miami’s No.5 starter in Hernandez is a recipe for success. A +135 moneyline is too good to pass up with Arizona starting games as good as they have. The Diamondbacks should sweep tonight off of a strong Bumgarner start. 

PICK: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (+135)

MINNESOTA WILD VS ST. LOUIS BLUES

The St. Louis Blues got a jumpstart in Minnesota on Monday, leading wire-to-wire to take a 1-0 series lead in the first round of the NHL Playoffs. The 4-0 Game 1 win was St. Louis’ fourth win against Minnesota this year. The Blues swept the Wild in the regular season.

Special teams are the difference maker between two teams who matchup well across the rest of the board. St. Louis finished the regular season with the second best power play unit in the NHL (26.47 PP%) and a top five penalty killing unit. Minnesota on the other hand converted on power plays at a rate of 20.95 percent, only good for 17th in the league. Their penalty killing? Even worse at 26th in the league.

To make matters worse, Minnesota averages the third highest penalty minutes per game at 10.9. In Game 1, two of St. Louis’ four goals came on man-up situations.

Unless the Wild can cut back on the penalties, the Blues will run them out of the playoffs in record time. Take St. Louis on the favorable moneyline tonight. 

PICK: ST. LOUIS BLUES (+105)

MIAMI HEAT VS PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

I mentioned in my favorite bets this past Monday that the UNDER was the way to go in Game 1 of the Miami-Philadelphia series. The UNDER hit again in a 106-92 Heat win and I like it once more tonight.

The UNDER is now 4-1 in Miami’s games against the 76ers this year, 6-0 in Heat playoff games and 5-2 in 76er playoff games. What else is there to say?

Along with landing 2nd and 4th in the playoffs for points allowed per game, both teams fall in the top four in opposing field goal percentage and top three in opposing three point percentage.

With Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry still out, the UNDER is good to go again for Game 2 tonight. As with the Bucks UNDER yesterday, ride it until it fails. 

PICK: UNDER 208.5 POINTS (-115)

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Tuesday’s Picks: Making the most of your chances, don’t Buck the trend and more to bet

There’s always more playoff action in May, as both the first round of the NHL Playoffs and second round of the NBA Playoffs continue today. A pair of shutdown teams built for the postseason feature in my favorite bets of Tuesday, with an MLB divisional showdown joining as well.

Here are my best bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

NEW YORK RANGERS VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

To say the Rangers have got the better of the Penguins this season would be an understatement. The Rangers won three of four versus the Penguins in the regular season, taking both games at home. They play in Madison Square Garden tonight in Game 1 of their playoff series.

Pittsburgh averaged 3.32 goals per game (11th) but couldn’t score more than twice in any game against New York in 2022. Igor Shesterkin is the big reason why, leading the NHL in save percentage (.935) and GAA (2.07).

Despite controlling the puck more, shooting more and creating more chances than the Rangers, the Penguins struggle to convert. New York boasts a higher conversion rate at even strength (9.4 shooting percentage to 9.0 for PIT) and a significantly better power-play unit (25.46 to 20.41 PP%).

Without starting goalie Tristen Jarry for the first two games, the Penguins are clear underdogs to a Ranger’s team that should excel when goals are harder to come by. They’ll take Game 1 at home tonight. 

PICK: NEW YORK RANGERS (-125)

BOSTON CELTICS VS MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Last Wednesday, I mentioned the UNDER was undefeated in the Bucks’ postseason games. Their UNDER record is now improved to 6-0, as they look to steal another game from the Celtics in Boston.

Milwaukee’s improved playoff defense continues to dominate opposing teams. They lead the NBA in points allowed this postseason at 94.2. Opposing teams scored 100 points against the Bucks only twice through six playoff games.

Boston’s defense isn’t too shabby either, ranking 5th among remaining teams at 107.4 points allowed per game.

The UNDER will be in play once again. Among all second round playoff teams, only the Mavericks score less than the Bucks and Celtics, who average 108.6 and 108.3 points per game respectively this postseason. 

PICK: UNDER 215.5 POINTS (-115)

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS CINCINNATI REDS

The Brewers batting finally caught up to their pitching. Ranked third in the MLB in ERA (3.01), the Brew Crew rattled off 20 runs over a three game series win against the Chicago Cubs. Milwaukee is 7-3 in their last ten and sitting pretty atop the NL Central.

Already 11.5 games back on the Brewers are the Reds. Cincinnati couldn’t possibly have a worse start to a season. Dead last in the MLB at 3-19 and ranked in the bottom two of almost every major stat. 29th in runs per game, 29th in batting averages, 29th in on base percentage and 30th in ERA, allowing a whopping total of 6.15 earned runs per game.

To make matters worse, the Reds are one of the worst teams against the spread this season, with a 6-16 ATS record. The Brewers are favored (rightfully so) and should pile on the runs against the Reds. Brandon Woodruff opens the pitching for Milwaukee, who are 3-1 against the spread when he starts. 

PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5 (-105)

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Monday’s Picks: OVER/UNDER takes center stage in the Heat of the Playoffs

A trio of OVER/UNDER bets make the list today as the NHL Playoffs get underway and the NBA Playoffs continue the second round. Two games in Miami should come down to defensive efforts, while a goal explosion is headed our way up north.

Check out all the details, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

MIAMI HEAT VS PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

James Harden and the rest of the 76ers face their toughest test of the season, heading to Miami without Joel Embiid. The star big man suffered a facial fracture late in the 76ers’ clinching effort against the Toronto Raptors. Embiid will sit Game 1 and 2 at least, as Philadelphia challenges a stellar Heat defense without their top scorer.

Miami, who are without Kyle Lowry for Game 1, exhibited elite defense in their first round takedown of the Hawks. The Heat limited Atlanta to 97.4 PPG, well below their season average.

Albeit with Embiid, the 76ers displayed a strong defense front in round one as well. They held the Raptors to 103.2 PPG over six games, three without the elite defensive presence of Matisse Thybulle. Regardless of outcome, a defensive battle is on the way in this second round matchup.

Low-scoring, defensive-centric games tend to be commonplace for the Heat and 76ers. The UNDER hit in three of their four regular season games, with both teams scoring over 100 points only once.

So far this postseason, the UNDER is 9-2 in Miami and Philadelphia games. Even with some key stars missing from both outfits, I don’t expect the trend to change.

PICK: UNDER 209.5 POINTS (-115)

MIAMI MARLINS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Two of the best pitchers this season face off to start the week in the MLB. Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez’ hot starts go head-to-head on the rubber tonight in South Florida.

Few have started better than Gallen this season. The Diamondbacks’ right hander allowed only one earned run through three starts (against the Dodgers and Mets no less). Gallen only gave up six hits in 15 innings of pitching, which included 14 strikeouts. He’s earned his spot in a strong Diamondbacks rotation currently 10th in ERA at 3.28.

Lopez has been equally as excellent for the Marlins. Across four starts, Lopez recorded three wins and only one earned run. 23.1 innings pitched, 13 hits and 23 strikeouts for Lopez, who makes up the Marlins elite pitching rotation (5th in ERA: 3.10). The opposing team has yet to score more than a run in games Lopez starts.

A pitching duel is more than expected tonight, as the Marlins and Diamondbacks rely on strong arms to boost weak bats. Both are in the bottom half of the MLB in Runs per Game, with Arizona only averaging 3.09.

Miami and Arizona have a combined 11-28-1 O/U record, which comes to no surprise. Take the UNDER with star pitching on the mound. 

PICK: UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-105)

MINNESOTA WILD VS ST. LOUIS BLUES

A classic Western Conference shootout is on the way between the Wild and Blues, who start their first round playoff series in Minnesota. Great goaltending down the stretch from Victor Husso and newly-acquired Marc-Andre Fleury will take a backseat to two of the most explosive offenses this season.

St. Louis and Minnesota love to score goals. Both teams rank in the top five of Goals per Game with the Blues having the edge at 3.77 to 3.72. We got a sneak preview on this playoff series as the Wild and Blues met three times this season. The Blues took all three, but 28 total goals were scored during the process.

The OVER is 3-0 in Wild-Blues games this season and O6.5 goals tonight gets favorable +100 odds. I know it’s harder to score in playoff hockey, but with a strong history of shootouts and great odds, the OVER seems like a no-brainer selection. 

PICK: OVER 6.5 GOALS (+100)
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Friday’s Picks: Bet on All Things Baseball

It’s an all-baseball Friday! After looking at multiple matchups, I found not one, not two, but three spread bets with great value in the MLB. The Big League’s best go to work in my favorite bets to kick start the weekend.

Check out all the details, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Three of the best teams in baseball right now reside in the NL West and the Giants are one of them. San Francisco is currently 2nd in the MLB in ERA (2.32) and 5th in Runs per Game (4.79), which both contribute to their division-leading 13-6 record.

The Giants draw the Nationals today for the start of two teams’ second series of the year. Washington continues to struggle this season, falling in the bottom five for ERA (5.01) and Runs per Game (3.19).

San Francisco is 11-8 Against the Spread this season, another sharp contrast to Washington, who sport a 6-14 ATS record through 20 games. In their first series in Washington, the Giants won all three games, covering in each one.

A bounceback win following a tough loss to the Athletics is due for the Giants. After outsourcing the Nationals 24-6 in their first series, expect the same or better out of San Francisco at home. 

PICK: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -1.5 (-105)

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Speaking of NL West powerhouses, the Padres top ten offense delivered in three straight wins against the Reds. San Diego is 8th in the MLB in Runs per Game (4.55) and 5th in OBP (.329) following 24 total runs in their series against Cincinnati.

The Padres also have one of the best records Against the Spread (13-7) heading into their series with the Pirates. Pittsburgh struggled to get runs on the board against the Brewers, who swept them for the second time this year. The Pirates were held to two runs or less in five of their six games against the Brewers.

To make matters worse, Zach Thompson starts on the mound today for Pittsburgh. Thompson has had a less than stellar start to the season, allowing 20 hits and 12 earned runs through 10 innings pitched.

Yu Darvish starts today for the Padres. Darvish looks elite in his last 12 innings, giving up only five hits and one earned run while striking out 15. This included a scoreless six innings against the Dodgers, one of the best offenses in the league.

San Diego is one of the best teams Against the Spread this season for a reason and Darvish gets a lopsided pitching matchup in their first game against Pittsburgh. They should cover on the road today. 

PICK: SAN DIEGO PADRES -1.5 (-105)

NEW YORK YANKEES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Two times now I’ve bet with the Yankees bullpen and two times their slugging made me pay. New York is one the most balanced teams in baseball and are playing lights out. They have the 3rd best ERA in the league at 2.92, but also rank among the top ten in Runs per Game (4.47) and Batting Average (.246).

Winners of six straight, and wins in eight of their last ten, the Yankees are red hot enroute to Kansas City today.

The Royals will attempt to stop the streak with Kris Bubic on the mound for the first game of the series. Bubic struggled in his first three starts, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits in seven innings pitched. The Royals haven’t been much better, falling in the bottom third of the MLB in Runs per Game, Batting Average, OBP and ERA.

Nestor Cortes Jr., who has been excellent for the Yankees this season, draws the start tonight. Over 15 innings, Cortes Jr. allowed only two runs and seven hits, striking out 25 in the process.

Their balanced offense and defense should propel the Yankees to a 7th win in a row. After covering in their last four, New York will improve to 12-8 Against the Spread tonight. 

PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES -1.5 (-120)
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Thursday’s Picks: Flaming Hot in Minnesota, Cold Shooting in the North and more to bet

In tonight’s major sports action, a pair of moneyline bets in the North caught my eye. In the MLB, an American League divisional matchup seems primed to go UNDER again. After looking through all the matchups, I picked out a few of my favorites this Thursday.

Here’s my best bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM

CALGARY FLAMES VS MINNESOTA WILD

Name a team hotter than the Calgary Flames right now. You can’t. Winners of three straight and boasting a 8-1-1 record in their last ten, the Flames are peaking at the right time. Calgary sits atop the Pacific Division with only two games left in the regular season, soon to be one after a date with the Minnesota Wild tonight.

Calgary’s high octane offense, which averages 3.60 goals and 35.53 shots per game (6th and 3rd in the NHL respectively), is humming during their past ten games. The Flames scored four or more goals in eight of their last ten, including nine on Arizona and six on Vancouver.

The Flames own the Wild this season. In their back-to-back meetings at the end of February, Calgary won both games, out-scoring Minnesota 12-4. The Wild are favored tonight, at home,  at -120.

I like Calgary to take the win in Minnesota. Along with the Flames dominant record against them, the Wild may be without key contributors Mats Zuccarello (24 goals, 79 points) and Jared Spurgeon (39 points). Take the favorable moneyline for Calgary tonight. 

PICK: CALGARY FLAMES (+105)

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS NEW YORK YANKEES

Bruce Zimmerman returns to the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight in an effort to stave off a sweep from the New York Yankees. Zimmerman blanked the Yankees in a 5-0 win earlier this month. The lefty allowed only four hits and struck out six in a five-inning effort.

Expect another low scoring matchup in New York tonight. The Orioles and Yankees sport two of the best records against the OVER in the MLB. Baltimore hit the UNDER in 12 of their 17 games, while New York managed it in 11 of 17. The UNDER is 4-1 in all of the NYY-BAL games this season.

Jameson Taillon draws the start from the Yankees’ 2.85 ERA (3rd in the MLB) bullpen. The UNDER hit in Taillon’s last start against the Orioles and he’s 3-0 against the OVER this season.

New York’s 12-8 win two days ago is a blooper among a consistent history. Zimmerman and Taillon should keep both offenses in check tonight. 

PICK: UNDER 8 RUNS (-110)

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS TORONTO RAPTORS

The Raptors flipped the script on the 76ers, who seemed destined to finish the first round series in four games. Heading back to Toronto, the Raptors appear to have solved the Sixers defensively, as they look to tie up the series tonight.

After a 131 point explosion in Game 1, the Raptors limited the Sixers to less points every game. Their 103-88 win in Game 5 was not only the lowest total for Philadelphia offensively, but the largest point margin for Toronto this series.

Affecting the 76ers shooting has paid dividends for the Raptors. Philadelphia shot over 50% from the field and from three in Game 1. In Game 5? 38.3% from the floor and 27% from beyond the arc. Increased minutes for Thaddeus Young off the bench (four steals in the last two games) played a part in Toronto dominating the turnover battle. After committing only three in Game 1, the 76ers have 14 or more TOs in Games 2-5.

With Matisse Thybulle unable to travel to Canada for Game 6, I expect Toronto to force a Game 7 in Philadelphia. With a favorable moneyline at home, betting on the Raptors is an easy decision. 

PICK: TORONTO RAPTORS (+105)
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Wednesday’s Picks: Fishing for a Spread, Climbing Over the Rockies and more to bet

Wondering what teams to bet on this week? Look no further than the MLB’s NL East. Along with two baseball games, an NBA Playoff game slid in my favorite picks for today.

After doing a deep-dive, here’s what I like for this Wednesday, with all odds referenced from BetMGM

CHICAGO BULLS VS MILWAUKEE BUCKS

A resurgence from Milwaukee after a disappointing loss in Game 2 has the Bucks up 3-1 on the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Bucks won both games in Chicago and could close the series at home tonight.

Milwaukee’s defensive effort is the chief reason for their domination of the Bulls. After finishing in the lower half of the league in points allowed during the regular season, the Bucks took a step up. Milwaukee leads all teams in postseason points allowed, surrendering 94.0 points a game, a big improvement from the 112.1 allowed in their first 82 games.

The Bucks excel at limiting the Bulls’ offensive output. Milwaukee kept Chicago under 100 points in three of their four playoff games. If you include the regular season, the Bulls failed to reach the century mark in five of their eight games against the Bucks.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Milwaukee playoff games and 7-1 in Bucks-Bulls games for the entire season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulls fail to score in triple digits yet again as the Bucks look to close them out at home. 

PICK: UNDER 217.5 (-115)

MIAMI MARLINS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS

The Miami Marlins entered their second straight NL East series hot and got back to .500 last night after a 5-2 win against the Washington Nationals.

Winners of three in a row, the Marlins rank in the top ten in Batting Average, OBP and ERA across the entire MLB. Not to mention, they’ve excelled within the division this season, going 3-1 against Philadelphia and 2-1 in Atlanta.

Washington’s start couldn’t be more different. The Nationals are in the bottom ten in the league in Runs per Game, Batting Average, OBP and ERA. They are on a six game losing streak, and have a  5-14 record against the spread.

Miami have done well against the spread this season, specifically when Pablo Lopez starts. Lopez started the season excellently. The right-hander sports a 0.52 ERA, 17 strikeouts and only 10 hits across three starts (all wins). The Marlins, who are 10-6 ATS this season, covered in each of his games.

The streaks should continue for both division rivals this game. Another stellar outing from Lopez will put the Marlins in position to take another series within the NL East. 

PICK: MIAMI MARLINS -1.5 (+115)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS COLORADO ROCKIES

The Philadelphia Phillies’ bats reignited after a quiet series against Milwaukee. The Brewers limited Philadelphia to only seven runs in three games, two of them for losses. The Phillies’ hitters responded in a big way against the Rockies, driving in 18 runs over their last two games.

Heavy hitting tends to be a common trend between Colorado and Philadelphia. Both teams land among the top ten in offensive metrics. Coincidentally, they also fall to the bottom ten in team ERA, with the Rockies allowing 4.53 Earned Runs on Average and the Phillies letting up 4.36.

The scores reflect their strengths. In their past five matchups, 10 or more runs scored in four games. Not to mention Ryan Feltner draws his first start of the season after a call-up by the Rockies. Feltner played in two Big League games last season, one of which was against the Phillies. The run total from that game? Nine.

Expect the remainder of the series to stay explosive. With the OVER/UNDER 8.5 tonight, the Rockies and Phillies should deliver. 

PICK: OVER 8.5 (-105)
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Tuesday’s Picks: Putting Trae on Ice, Padres Seeing Reds and more to bet

Multiple top scoring offenses are on the ticket in the NHL, while defense seems to be the name of the game in the NBA and MLB tonight. I took a look at the data before teams clash to bring out the best bets this Tuesday.

Here are my favorite bets for tonight, with all odds referenced from BetMGM

MIAMI HEAT VS ATLANTA HAWKS

In the matchup between a high powered offense and an elite defense, the defense is dominating. The Miami Heat lead the Atlanta Hawks 3-1 in their first round playoff series as they return to Miami for Game 5.

No one has suffered more from Miami’s elite defense than Trae Young. Young, who shot 44.0 percent from the field this season and 35.5 percent from beyond the arc, has been suffocated offensively in this series. He’s 20 for 57 (35.1 FG%) on the floor and 7 for 33 (21.2 3P%) from three in the four games against the Heat.

Young finished the regular season tied for fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points per game. In the postseason, he has yet to eclipse 25 points, with the Heat keeping him under 10 points in both Game 1 and Game 4.

The Hawks have scored less as a whole, averaging under 100 points per game (way under their regular season average of 113.9). With Miami favored at home and fresh off a 24 point win in Game 4 (the Hawks managed only 86 points), I expect the Heat to snuff out Trae Young once again. 

PICK: TRAE YOUNG UNDER 25.5 POINTS (-123)

DETROIT RED WINGS VS TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Tonight in Toronto, the Maple Leafs face the Red Wings for the fourth time this season in a classic original six matchup to wind down their season.

The Leafs are hot going into the playoffs. Winners in seven of their last ten, Toronto ranks 2nd in Goals per Game, 6th in Shots per Game and owns the number one Power Play unit in the NHL. Their high-powered offense converts on 27 percent of their man-up opportunities.

Toronto’s weakness is the defense. The Leafs allow 3.13 goals per game, good for 19th in the league. Eight of their last ten contests include at least one team scoring four or more goals, with the UNDER hitting in the other two games.

Here’s the scores of the Maple Leafs three games against the Red Wings this season: 5-4, 7-4 and 10-7. Each one cleared the OVER, no sweat.

The Red Wings are one of the worst teams at preventing goals (31st in the NHL with 3.80 GAA) and history is on the OVER’s side. Another high scoring affair is on the way tonight in Toronto. 

PICK: OVER 7.0 GOALS (+105)

Last Friday I talked about how strong pitching contributes to the Orioles reign as the King of the UNDER. Likewise, I mentioned how dominant the Dodgers are against the spread yesterday (both bets won). I like both those bets again today, but for variety’s sake, here’s another West Coast team with a great ATS record. 

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS CINCINNATI REDS

Although the San Diego Padres have not been as flashy statistically as their NL West rivals, they also do excellently Against the Spread. In the 10 games they’ve won, the Padres have covered every single time.

The Cincinnati Reds struggling certainly helps their case. An extremely slow start leaves the Reds with the worst record in the MLB at 3-13. Cincinnati ranks last in Runs per Game, OBP and second-to-last in Batting Average and ERA.

The Padres and Reds already played a three game series in San Diego, which the Padres swept with ease. They limited the Reds to three total runs in three games, winning 4-1, 6-2 and 6-0. As we already know, the Padres covered in each game.

San Diego should win in Cincinnati as I don’t expect any magical improvement from the Reds at home. When the Padres win, they cover, so I like the spread for them tonight. 

PICK: SAN DIEGO PADRES -1.5 (-110)
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Monday’s Picks: Fly(er)Over in Chicago, Nothing for this Net and more to bet

Basketball takes center stage tonight as a pair teams look to stay alive in the NBA Playoffs. With the MLB getting into full swing and a little bit of hockey action, I walk through my favorite bets for tonight’s slate of games.

These are the best bets I found, with all odds referenced from BetMGM

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS VS CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

In the lone game of NHL action tonight, the Flyers travel out to Chicago in an attempt to get their third win in a row against the Blackhawks.

With the injury to Carter Hart, Philadelphia called up Felix Sandstrom to backup Martin Jones for the remainder of the season. The netminder’s rough start (0-2-1, 3.29 GAA) mirrors the struggles of Kevin Lankinen (6-15-6, 3.62 GAA), who plays his foil tonight for Chicago.

The Blackhawks have struggled defensively since trading starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. In their 16 games since the trade deadline, the Blackhawks limited opponents to two goals or less only twice. Opposing teams scored four or more goals in 11 of those contests.

Both Philadelphia and Chicago rank among the worst for goals allowed this season. The Flyers sit at 27th, conceding 3.58 goals per game while the Blackhawks are one spot above at 3.57 goals allowed on average.

With a pair of backup goalies tending the nets tonight and the Flyers new young talent scoring in bunches, take the OVER on what should be a goal-heavy night in Chicago. 

PICK: OVER 6.5 GOALS (-110)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

You would be hard pressed to find any team in the MLB better than the Dodgers. LAD won their series against San Diego, lead the big leagues in Runs per Game (5.47 Runs/G) and On Base Percentage (.331 OBP) and rank in the top ten for Batting Average and ERA.

The Dodgers are also one of the best teams against the spread this season. In every game they’ve won, they cover. 11 money line wins and 11 wins against the spread for the heavily-favored NL West leaders. They travel to Arizona today for their second inter-divisional series.

The Diamondbacks could not be more different. Arizona has struggled offensively so far, ranking 28th in Runs/G (3.06), 29th in Batting Avg. (.189) and 23rd in OPB (.286). Against teams above .500, the Diamondbacks are 3-7 and got outscored 51 to 29

I expect the Dodgers to win this game, and their trend of covering should continue with Walker Buehler on the mound tonight. 

PICK: LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 (-120)

BROOKLYN NETS VS BOSTON CELTICS

On the brink of elimination, the Brooklyn Nets need to find a way around the Boston Celtics stout defense to prolong their stay in the NBA Playoffs.

The Celtics capitalized on turnovers, forcing more and scoring off of them frequently. Brooklyn averaged 13.2 turnovers a game and allowed 17.3 points off turnovers during the regular season. Those averages are up to 16 TO and 23.7 points in their first three games versus Boston. As a consequence, the Nets have scored less, averaging five less points a game in the postseason.

Part of the lack of scoring is the shutdown of Brooklyn’s star-player duo. Kevin Durant (who averages 5.67 TO a game this series) only took 11 shots in Game 3, while the Celtics keyed in on Kyrie Irving.

After a stellar performance in Game 1, (12-20 FG, 6-10 3PT, 39 PTS) Irving has been worse than ineffective. In Games 2 and 3, Irving went 10 for 30 from the field, missing on all eight of his three-point attempts for a lackluster 26 total points.

It’s obvious stopping Irving is the key to the Celtics game plan, who want the rest of the Nets to beat them. Expect Durant to touch the ball more in an effort to stave off elimination while Kyrie draws newly-minted DPOY winner Marcus Smart. Take the under on his total points tonight. 

PICK: KYRIE IRVING UNDER 26.5 POINTS (-107)

 
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Friday’s Picks: Heating Up, Angels in the Under and more to bet

With a full slate of NBA playoff games, end of season NHL games and the MLB in full swing, there’s so much to bet on this Friday. I took a look at all three major sports leagues, scouring for high quality opportunities on our first day of the weekend.

Here are the best bets I found, with all odds referenced from BetMGM

MIAMI HEAT VS ATLANTA HAWKS PICK

The Heat travel to Atlanta for their first road playoff game after sweeping the Hawks at home for a 2-0 series lead.

During the homestand, the Heat limited Atlanta to 98.0 points per game (ppg), way below their average of 113.9 during the regular season. Miami continues to get good looks on the offensive side of the ball as well, averaging 115.o ppg so far this series (which is up from their regular season average of 110.0).

So far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs, the higher seed is 14-6 against the spread. With more forgiving spreads in away games, the higher seeds went undefeated yesterday (3-0) as the Grizzlies, Mavericks and Warriors all covered.

The Heat have an answer for everything the Hawks have thrown at them up to this point. I don’t expect that to change. After covering in the first two games, the Heat should do it again tonight. 

PICK: MIAMI HEAT -1.5 (-110)

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS LOS ANGELES ANGELS PICK

Lefty Bruce Zimmerman is likely to get the start on the mound tonight for the Orioles, who visit Los Angeles to play the Angels tonight. Zimmerman, one of the bright spots in a sour start to Baltimore’s season, has put together nine innings of scoreless pitching in two games.

On the other side of the ball, The Orioles rank last in the big leagues in offense.  Averaging only 2.15 runs per game, Baltimore continues a remarkable record on UNDER bets this season. They have hit the UNDER in 11 of their 13 games played.

Despite running into an Angels team with hot bats (Top five in runs scored per game), Los Angeles is 1-5 on OVER/UNDER bets at home this season.

A combination of strong pitching and lackluster offense should spell another low scoring affair for Baltimore. Take the UNDER tonight in LA. 

PICK: UNDER 8.5 RUNS

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS EDMONTON OILERS PICK

A meeting between a few of the NHL’s brightest stars gets underway tonight as the Colorado Avalanche join the Oilers in Edmonton.

Potentially foreshadowing a Conference finals meetup, both Colorado and Edmonton rank among the best goal-scoring teams in the league. The Avalanche (3rd in goals per game with 3.82) look to bounce back after a loss to the Seattle Kraken while the Oilers (7th in goals per game with 3.44) aim to win their fourth in a row.

Surprisingly, goals may be scarce tonight. The Avalanche and Oilers met twice this year, with both games ending in under five total goals scored (both games also went to overtime).

Darcy Kuemper should be returning to the crease tonight for the Avalanche, who also have the sixth rated defense in the NHL in goals allowed. Kuemper has been excellent for Colorado this season, maintaining a 2.43 goals against average (7th in the league) and a .924 save percentage (3rd).

The battle between the two playoff contenders should be a close and contested affair. Expect both teams to bring their A-game, as I predict the UNDER will hit for the third time in this matchup. 

PICK: UNDER 6.5 GOALS
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Emilia Romagna Grand Prix Picks: Leclerc Stays on Top and Alonso’s Valuable Experience

With the conclusion of another off week, Formula 1 is back for their first stint in Europe (and first sprint race!) of the 2022 season. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix gets underway this Friday, April 22nd, with the first free practice beginning at 7:30 A.M. EST. 

Who’s favored in race number four of the F1 calendar? I’ll walk you through the drivers and bets I like this weekend in Italy. 

All betting odds for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix referenced via BetMGM

EMILIA ROMAGNA GRAND PRIX PICKS: RACE WINNER

More than a week removed from his grand slam in Albert Park, Charles Leclerc remains the no-brainer pick to continue his winning ways at Imola. Who has been faster than the Monegasque driver this season? Leclerc boasts two pole positions, two race wins and fastest lap in all three contests in 2022. His track record at Imola is excellent as well, with top five finishes at both appearances in 2021 and 2020.

Max Verstappen won the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix from third in his championship-effort last season, but until Red Bull reach a higher level of reliability with the RB18, I wouldn’t trust him. With a shorter track already negating Red Bull’s high top speed, sleep on Verstappen this weekend.

After a notable improvement in the Australian Grand Prix, Mercedes looks primed to deliver on the improvements promised by the first European campaign of this season. Team boss Toto Wolff preached patience however, admitting the W13 still remains behind the pace of Ferrari and Red Bull. With upgrades to come, take a wait-and-see approach on both Mercedes drivers for the time being.

Leclerc is the obvious favorite for a reason and I will plug him till proven otherwise. Expect another win from the hottest driver of 2022

PICK: CHARLES LECLERC (+120)

EMILIA ROMAGNA GRAND PRIX PICKS: TOP SIX FINISH

Fun fact, there is only one driver on the grid with more than two starts at Imola: Fernando Alonso. The Alpine driver started at Imola six times, winning in 2005 and finishing P4.6 on average (He finished in the points last year in his second race at Alpine). If not for an unfortunate hydraulics issue in Australia, Alonso showcased top three qualifying pace at Albert Park.

The Spaniard looks more comfortable every race. With the turn of pace Alpine displayed and his wealth of experience, I’m hammering Alonso to find a top six finish this weekend. 

PICK: FERNANDO ALONSO (+150)

EMILIA ROMAGNA GRAND PRIX PICKS: TOP TEN FINISH

Despite a lackluster start to the year, Pierre Gasly continues to punch above his weight. After a top ten finish got derailed by engine failure in Bahrain, Gasly delivered top ten performances at Saudi Arabia and Australia. He has never qualified worse than fifth at Imola, which is fourth among qualifying averages on the grid.

Gasly is a consistent force at AlphaTauri and an almost-lock to finish in the points every race weekend. He’ll keep up his stellar record in Imola with another top ten finish. 

PICK: PIERRE GASLY (-140)
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Driver Power Rankings: Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

It’s the season of racing! A thrilling start to the 2022 Formula One season in Bahrain shuffled the field for this weekend’s contest in Jeddah. 

I’ll run through a race preview for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix later in the week (when more betting odds are up). Coupled with the first edition of the Driver Power Rankings is each driver’s finish at Jeddah (or lack thereof) last season. 

Ranking Criteria: Assume every 2022 F1 driver raced using the same car. Who would compete for race wins? Who would make up the points scorers? I take a swipe at predicting an even-based grid. 


1. Hamilton

Points: 15
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 1st

2. Verstappen

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 2nd

3. Leclerc

Points: 26
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 7th

4. Norris

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 10th

5. Sainz

Points: 18
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 8th

6. Russell

Points: 12
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: DNF

7. Perez

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: DNF

8. Bottas

Points: 8
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 3rd

9. Vettel

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: DNF

10. Gasly

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 6th

11. Alonso

Points: 2
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 13th

12. Ricciardo

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 5th

13. Magnussen

Points: 10
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: NA

14. Ocon

Points: 6
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 4th

15. Albon

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: NA

16. Tsunoda

Points: 4
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 14th

17. Schumacher

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: DNF

18. Zhou

Points: 1 
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: NA

19. Stroll 

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 11th

20. Latifi 

Points: 0
2021 Saudi Arabian GP Finish: 12th

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Bahrain GP: Expectations and Betting Odds I Like

On the eve of our first free practice of the season, nothing is certain following a dramatic and explosive finish to 2021 Formula One. New car regulations, tyre rules and drivers roll out for the first time this weekend in the Bahrain Grand Prix. What can we expect in (hopefully) one of the most competitive race seasons to date?

RACE WINNER: MAX VERSTAPPEN (+175)

With the pecking order of top teams scrambled from car changes, last season’s constant force remains above the rest. Max Verstappen’s championship-winning 2021 featured an abundance of pole positions, laps led and race wins.  

A strong end to testing saw Vertsappen finish with the second fastest lap on Day 2 and the fastest on the final Bahrain testing day. The new look Red Bull Racing car appears to be on the faster side of the field and should continue last season’s pace.

Verstappen boasts one of the best qualifying records at Bahrain among the field, behind only Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas. With the speed of the Mercedes in doubt, don’t be surprised if Verstappen qualifies in front and leads wire-to-wire for his first ever race win in Bahrain. 

OTHER POTENTIAL PODIUM FINISHERS: GEORGE RUSSELL (+225)

Despite reservations about their pace, the Mercedes duo of Hamilton and George Russell are my favorites to fill out the podium. Hamilton boasts an extensive qualifying (P3.4) and finishing average (P1.6) over his last five races in Bahrain. As one of the greatest racers of all time, he remains a favorite to land on the podium, per the usual.

No one forgets Russell’s nearly legendary performance at Bahrain two years ago. The driver-team pairing finally comes to fruition with high expectations for Russell with a frontrunner.

Mercedes’ decision to move on from Bottas, one of the key ingredients in their dominance, paints Russell as their next step. His previous season at Williams showcased effective performance in suboptimal settings and his ability to adapt to various race conditions. The previous experience with Mercedes makes the only unfamiliar element in Bahrain the new car, which Russell should take to immediately. His skill makes him my favorite outside shot at a podium this weekend, if not every race weekend of 2022. 

THE REST OF THE TOP 6: LANDO NORRIS (+125)

What about the Ferraris? Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc both found pace during the testing days. Both are trendy picks to finish among the top five or place on the podium. Sporting strong finishes at Bahrain previously, Sainz and Leclerc vault Ferrari among the title contenders once again. While Hamilton and Alpine’s Fernando Alonso believe Ferrari owns the fastest car on the track, I want to see it before I believe it.

Another wildcard with a shot at a podium finish, Sergio Perez always threatens for a race win. The Red Bull driver possesses the speed, especially in Bahrain, to make noise at the front. As likely as a top six finish is, his volatility in results last season makes predicting a strong race day more than nerve wracking.

Gambling on Perez or one of the Ferrari drivers to fall out of the top six makes the outside odds for Lando Norris a layup. Norris races well in Bahrain, with top ten results in all four contests at the track. McLaren teammate Daniel Ricciardo got limited practice in the new car due to COVID-19, leaving Norris the favorite to lead them during the weekend. I expect him to finish among the leaders.

QUICK HITS: THE MIDFIELD

  • Sebastian Vettel unfortunately delayed his season debut till the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix because of a positive COVID-19 test. Nico Hülkenburg takes his place along Lance Stroll for Aston Martin. 
  • Alpine and AlphaTauri both showcased impressive pace during Bahrain testing. Keep an eye on Pierre Gasly and Alonso, who should compete for top ten spots. 
  • Kevin Magnussen returns to Haas for 2022 after a year removed from the American outfit. A more competitive car for the veteran and teammate Mick Schumacher may vault Haas into the fray once again. 
  • Alex Albon also returns to F1 for Williams, who hope he captures the form Russell displayed for them the previous season. 
  • New threads for Bottas leave the Alfa Romeo driver as an afterthought. Watch for him to out-qualify expectations on Saturday. 
  • Alfa Romeo also debut F1 rookie Guanyu Zhou this weekend, following his successful year in Formula 2 with Virtuosi Racing. 

Check back after practice and qualifying for updated thoughts and more surrounding the Bahrain GP. 

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College Championship Round of 32 Preview: Matches to Watch

The last four teams finally slotted into place, the 2021 Collegiate League of Legends Championship bracket is locked in. 32 teams, from the ever-strong North Conference to the traditional roots of the Big East, makeup CLoL’s largest Championship bracket ever. Title favorites, conference champions and upstart contenders all play with their backs against the wall starting this Saturday, May 1st.

Here’s a preview of potential electrifying matchups to watch in the Round of 32:

#14 NORTHEASTERN VS #19 GEORGE MASON
SAT 11AM PST/2PM EST ─ UpsurgeEsports

Northeastern
First year in a new conference? No problem for Northeastern, who finished the season as the Esports Collegiate Conference Champion. The Huskies locked in their College Championship spot with a 2-1 series win over Buffalo after defeating fellow ESC frontrunner Miami, 2-1, in the semifinals.

Northeastern, who missed the playoffs the year previous in the East, buckled down this season to improve.

“The players have really put in the work this year,” said “x B R A V O x,” the Northeastern team manager. “We’ve collectively built a really positive environment for growth.”

Part of that growth involved role swapping. Former toplaner “Stale Bagel” switched to jungle, with former jungler “ask 4 soundcloud” switching to support. x B R A V O x mentioned the swap built upon the players’ strong dynamic and formed a synchronized jungle-support relationship.

“Ryan [ask 4 soundcloud] had mentioned he felt he could contribute a lot more to the team as a support player. He was like, ‘Hey man, if you can figure this whole jungle thing out, I think we could be really, really good.’”

“Toby [Stale Bagel] put in a lot of effort in the past one and a half years to make that difficult transition into the jungle role and I think he’s really stepped up.”

The improvements show for Northeastern as a whole, who bring an underrated amount of firepower into the Collegiate Championship.

“I think people should expect a scrappiness and a desire to win,” x B R A V O x said of Northeastern. “Everybody is peaking at the right time.”

George Mason
If you’re looking for a good example of resilience as a team and strong mental game, look no further than the South Conference’s third seed. George Mason went down 2-0 in their third place series against NC State, before falling behind six kills and 2,000 gold in game three. GMU battled back, winning game three and reverse sweeping to clinch their spot in the College Championship.

“Let’s forget about what happened in the previous games and just play our own game,” GMU botlaner “Enrique” said. “We got momentum and just ran with it.”

Their win is no fluke. George Mason’s core of jungler “Amar Int,” Enrique and support “Lefasa” flow seamlessly together to power the squad’s synergy. Early game movements and pressure flourished during the series, something Enrique credits to the trio’s high level experience from UPL Winter this season.

A school-focused semester kept solo laners “pe9qgr3qr97qganz” and “jinx gf” from getting as much practice as the rest of the team. What they lack in practice however, is buoyed by unique champion pools and raw talent.

Despite minimal scrim hours and coordinated team practice, GMU presents a dangerous challenge: they have yet to peak.

“We’re five better players, we will just outlane you and win the game,” Enrique said of their original approach in matches. “We’re starting to grasp the idea of playing mid-game macro beyond just if we don’t win lane, we lose the game.”

“We can guide them as we play with them,” Enrique said in regards to integrating their solo lanes. “We want to be able to give them the game plan and have them just follow up.”

A team constantly improving and adapting mixed with an immense mental fortitude? Don’t be surprised if George Mason gives anyone a run for their money.

“Last year got cancelled so we never got to show off what we had,” Enrique said.  “Maybe this year we will show something.” 

#16 TORONTO VS #17 BOISE STATE
SUN 2PM PST/5PM EST ─ Academy

Toronto
A week five loss to York gave Toronto the jumpstart they needed right before the playoffs. The team ramped up their vod reviews and scrims just before playoffs, where they swept Stony Brook in the first round. After losing to Harrisburg, York faced them again with a College Championship spot on the line. Toronto swept them, clinching a berth on the national stage.

“We were awakened,” Toronto botlaner “Siekomode” said, referring to their first match against York. “We realized that we really needed to practice.”

Improvement came easy for Toronto, who developed powerful bonds over the last two seasons.

“They’ve become really close friends,” Toronto team manager “Eluulu” said. “Stuff like that has really helped their communication and teamwork.”

“We always trust in each other and can always improve,” Siekomode said. “We always learn from our losses and get better from it.”

Toronto returns to the College Championship for the first time since 2017, where they finished second behind Maryville. Siekomode credits the return to their individual skill and adaptability.

“We don’t just stick to one style,” Siekomode said. “It’s one of our strengths because of how adaptable our players are and also how strong each of us are individually.”

Midlaner “DeafRef” and support “LittleFrosty” showcased that adaptability first hand. In the York playoff series, DeafRef flexed his Swain to bot, while LittleFrosty took the midlane on his signature Twisted Fate.

“It makes our draft really threatening,” Siekomode said. DeafRef’s unique champion pool only adds to Toronto’s unorthodox and aggressive play. Don’t be surprised if someone isn’t playing where─or what─you expect.

“It’s almost like a rag-tag group of friends,” said Eluulu. “They’ll pick whichever champions they’re comfortable on and make it work.”

Boise State
One of the most experienced teams in the College Championship, Boise State touts a roster at the forefront of the Mountain West Conference every single year. Three straight perfect regular seasons serve to illustrate how dominant BSU continues to be.

The teams have come a long way, according to Boise State Assistant Coach “NotKoba,” who said the program started playing in Head Coach Dr. Chris Haskell’s office. They upgraded to labs and an arena.

“They’ve all been around seeing just how much our program has adapted,” NotKoba said of the Boise State players.

Jungler “Red Hots,” toplaner “Goblin” and support “Deañ” all bring three plus years of collegiate experience to the table. Newcomers in midlaner “Ascent” and jungler “eThug” contain a wealth of amateur practice. NotKoba emphasized how everyone’s knowledge creates a powerful team.

“It gives a different perspective,” NotKoba said. “The more things you’ve played in the more experience you have, the more play styles you’ve seen. What works well with this team isn’t always gonna be what’s best for our team.”

“It lets you adapt to whatever your strong suit is.”

Adapting clearly presented itself this season for Boise State. A multi-role swap occurred in week four of the regular season, with eThug transferring from jungle to bot. Goblin switched to top and Red Hots found his place in the jungle. By loading up their botlane, the team felt it gave BSU the best chance to win in the Mountain West.

After another perfect regular season, Boise State came up short to Colorado State, 2-0, in the finals. Still qualifying for the College Championship, NotKoba remains far from concerned about the squad’s performance.

“I don’t think it fully influences how we’re going into this national stage,” NotKoba said. “We’re looking forward to competing at the highest level.”

Part of his confidence comes from the additions made on the coaching staff this season. Former CLoL standout “Wujin,” along with Dr. Haskell and NotKoba himself make it rather easy for the players to simply play. Boise State is prepared for anything this College Championship.

“It’s a combination of everyone working together,” NotKoba said. “[It’s] given the players a lot more opportunities to focus on their play.”

“We’re looking to come in swinging.” 

#15 GRAND VIEW VS #18 UC RIVERSIDE
SUN 5PM PST/8PM EST ─ UpsurgeEsports

Grand View
A shrunken conference did little to slow down Grand View in the 2021 season. GVU dominated the competition on the way to their first Midwest Esports Conference Championship. A perfect regular season capped with a 2-0 win over Illinois College in the finals saw Grand View capture a College Championship bid without ever dropping a game.

GVU found multiple ways to stay engaged this season, which included only five teams in their conference after multiple dropouts. They played in over five different tournaments, including UPL, RCL and Stacked Spring Invitational.

“Most of our players want to play more than the bare minimum,” GVU jungler “Kolthro” said. “Going into the year we planned on playing in as many tournaments as we could get into.”

Grand View brings an almost unmatchable dedication to getting in quality practice and improvement. Any scrims scheduled or additional tournaments all come from the players.

“We’re basically all player-ran,” GVU botlaner “Azog” said. “We have a student staff that helps as a player, but we have no actual coaching staff.

Azog, along with toplaner “P1atypus,” midlaner “Koskinen” and support “Chookies” brought amatuer experience to a GVU team who barely missed playoffs in the North prior to swapping conferences. Azog played previously at Columbia College; P1atypus at Harrisburg; Koskinen at RMU. Chemistry grew over two seasons of play to form a highly-knowledgeable and highly-skilled squad.

“It’s pretty easy to understand where everyone is coming from and to get on board with certain ideas,” Kolthro said. “We’re all just on the same page.”

“I think it’s night and day when you compare GVU from two years ago to today.”

UC Riverside
Although they fell a game short of a West Conference title, 2021 proved to be the best UC Riverside season of all time. Arizona State got the better of the Highlanders in both the regular season and the finals, but a close series and College Championship berth showcased major improvement.

UCR jungler “DAMLOSS GAMING,” mentioned the team is the best it’s ever been mechanically. A strong cohesion ties together the micro-gifted players to create a synchronized beast.

“We all have similar ideologies on how to play the game,” DAMLOSS GAMING said. “If the support calls a fight we’re always ready to turn or engage.”

“When we’re all united in that mindset that’s what makes us strong.”

UC Riverside proved their strength on more than one occasion. They took both the regular and postseason series from the West Conference third seed UC Berkeley. Perennial West Conference contender UBC also fell to the Highlanders in the playoffs.

“Our strong suit is playing around each other and knowing what to do at all times,” DAMLOSS GAMING said. Knowledge is key for DAMLOSS GAMING, who role swapped from midlane and dabbled as support. His multi-role experience shaped how he communicates with teammates, specifically veterans in toplaner “SSJ2GohanTop” and midlaner “asianknight.”

“I rely on them to first give me the insight as to how collegiate teams usually play,” DAMLOSS GAMING said. “Then I can put that into my own play and give my perspective.”

“I know how the lane states are so I try to play around that.”

The gameplay is entirely unified for UCR, who you never can count out according to DAMLOSS GAMING.

“Even if we fall behind in the early game, we always find a way to comeback in the teamfights.”

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS IN ACTION

After dropping a series in Week Five of the regular season to Houston, 2-0, Winthrop kicked it up a notch. The Eagles swept three series in a row against UCF, George Mason and Houston enroute to a South Conference Championship. Former National Champion Botlaner “Saskio” leads Winthrop into action against Marist at 2 p.m. PST/5 p.m. EST on the Academy Twitch channel, Saturday.  



Maryville midlaner “Wolfe” (above) is the only returning member of the 2019 National   Champions (Photo by Colin Young-Wolff/Riot Games)

The 2019 Collegiate National Champions looked poised to repeat in 2020 before unfortunate pandemic circumstances ended the CLoL season. Maryville didn’t miss a beat in 2021.  They finished the regular season undefeated, before rattling off playoff wins against fellow CLoL Championship teams in Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois State. Despite losing top-jungle duo of “Niles” and “Iconic” to the LCS, “Chippys” and “TheOddOrange” slotted in seamlessly for the North Conference Champions. MU’s first matchup against Montana State begins at 5 p.m. PST/8 p.m. EST on Academy, Saturday. 

East Conference Champions Western redeemed themselves with a 3-1 series win against Harrisburg after falling short in the regular season. Canada’s top team returns to the big stage without multiple members from their 2019 Championship berth. A new and improved Western will look to make a deep run starting with RPI, who they faceoff against at 11 a.m. PST/2 p.m. EST on Academy, Sunday.

A perfect season spoiled by Maryville, Illinois State stormed onto the scene in a big way. The Redbirds dealt losses to both Illinois and Illinois Wesleyan to reign supreme over the midwest state. Botlaner “Disconnector” brings immense collegiate experience to a strong contender from the North Conference. Illinois State plays at 11 a.m. PST/2 p.m. EST on the UnifiedEA Twitch channel, Sunday, against Farmingdale.

Arizona State finished as kings of the West Conference for the first time in program history after sweeping meetings against UC San Diego and UC Riverside. A seamless transition to midlane for “CatOnThyRoof” finds ASU primed to make a deep championship run. NYIT meets them in the first round at 2 p.m. PST/5 p.m. EST on the UpsurgeEsports Twitch channel, Sunday. 

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

The entirety of the Round of 32 will take place on May 1st and 2nd. The full schedule can be found here. Winners of matches this weekend move on to the Round of 16, which begins on May 8th and concludes on the 9th. The official schedule will be released on Monday, May 3rd here.

If you’re interested in how teams qualified for this year’s College Championship, you can check the official College Championship Rules here, along with the Selection Committee results and seedings here.

Follow me on Twitter (@wtlangan) and Collegiate Esports News (@cen_gg) to stay up-to-date with the CLoL Championship and all things collegiate esports!

Playoff Picks: NBA Finals and NHL Eastern Conference Finals

With the Colorado Avalanche eliminating the Edmonton Oilers last night, only two other playoff series remain for this week. I took a look at both the NBA Finals and NHL Eastern Conference Finals and picked out my best bets for the remainder of each series.

Igor Shesterkin should be active again tonight in Tampa Bay and the Warriors key defensive adjustments could continue to sway this series in their favor.

Check out the in-depth analysis for my favorite picks in both series: 

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS NEW YORK RANGERS

Despite trailing in the series, the Lightning continue to outplay the Rangers in the majority of each game. Tampa Bay led all three games in the Eastern Conference Finals in shots and dominated the advanced metrics, with a CORSI For percentage (CF%) at 57.86%.

Game 3 showcased how high volume and strong play contributes to wins. The Lightning controlled the game with a CF% of 64.2%. Tampa Bay recorded 52 shots against New York netminder Igor Shesterkin, for a well earned 3-2 win. 

The Rangers have played the Lightning close all season and showed they can generate wins relying on Shesterkin, so both the Tampa Bay Moneyline and Spread aren’t very enticing.

Tampa Bay’s dominance will lead to a plethora of shots however, so taking the OVER on 33.5 saves for Shesterkin is a no-brainer. New York lives and dies by their goaltender and he’ll be busy in another Tampa Bay home game tonight. 

PICK: IGOR SHESTERKIN OVER 33.5 SAVES (-125)


BOSTON CELTICS VS GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Splitting their first two home games of the NBA Finals isn’t ideal, but Game 2’s stellar defensive effort from the Warriors is encouraging heading to Boston tomorrow night.

The return of Gary Payton II cannot be understated. Payton’s defensive prowess on Jayson Tatum gave Draymond Green the ability to lock in on Jaylen Brown, who got off to a hot start in Game 2. After the first quarter, Brown was 1-for-11, scoring only four points. Thinking Basketball goes into greater detail on what the switch-up meant for the Warriors here.

The change in defensive coverage definitely shows. The Celtics’ star duo have been offensive powerhouses throughout the NBA Playoffs. Tatum (.578 TS%) and Brown (.582 TS%) boast a 109 and 108 ORtg respectively in the 2022 postseason. In the NBA Finals against Golden State, Tatum (.469 TS%) and Brown’s (.476 TS%) ORtg continue to drop, with Brown’s at 93 per 100 possessions this series.

The Warriors have led for the majority of the finals and continue to dominate in the third quarter. They’re 2-0 against the Celtics this year when Gary Payton II plays and he’ll be back again tomorrow in Boston. The Moneyline on the Warriors away is too enticing to not entertain. 

PICK: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+135)


Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.