Wednesday Strikeout Props: AL East Aces, Scherzer and Ohtani

@wolvsports

The Cardinals have been good, but Scherzer’s been better. He should light St. Louis up again tonight. #sports #sportsbetting #mlb #mets #scherzer

♬ original sound – Wolveridge Langan

The aces are in action this Wednesday, as multiple high caliber arms take to the mound tonight. I browsed through the matchups and hand selected my best strikeout props of the day, with all odds referenced are from BetMGM: 

KEVIN GAUSMAN VS SEATTLE MARINERS

The Blue Jays got everything they wanted–and more–when they signed Kevin Gausman this offseason. He’s been a strikeout machine. In his seven starts this season, Gausman only has two with less than eight strikeouts.

The 6.5 line is somewhat of an overreaction to a five strikeout game against Cleveland. The Guardians strikeout less than any other team in the league, so I like Gausman to return to form against the Mariners. 

PICK: GAUSMAN OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (-133)

GERRIT COLE VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Gerrit Cole really started heating up towards the end of April. In his last four games, the Yankees’ ace struck out nine, ten, six and nine. The six strikeout outing was against the Royals, who rank fourth in least strikeouts per game.

The Orioles on the other hand, rank fourth in the MLB for most strikeouts with 339 this season. Cole will continue to deal with a favorable line against Baltimore. 

PICK: COLE OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (-158)

MAX SCHERZER VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Not many pitchers are getting the better of the Cardinals’ hitters this season. Good thing Mets ace Max Scherzer is not most pitchers. Scherzer carved up St. Louis earlier this season, striking out ten in seven innings pitched.

His dominance over the Cards extends back seven years. In 12 starts since 2015 against St. Louis, Scherzer only has two games with less then eight K’s. History speaks for itself, take the OVER. 

PICK: SCHERZER OVER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-148)

SHOHEI OHTANI VS TEXAS RANGERS

As good as he’s been, Shohei Ohtani had a tough start against the Rangers already this season. Ohtani got yanked after three and a half innings, giving up six runs with only five strikeouts.

Texas puts the ball in play, ranking fifth for least amount of strikeouts this season. Coupled with the runs they’ve put up on LAA in the first two games of this series, Ohtani might not be in for long. It’s a bit of a gamble, but the odds are favorable for the UNDER on Ohtani strikeouts. 

PICK: OHTANI UNDER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (+121)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

NHL Playoffs Second Round: Betting Preview and Series Predictions

@wolvsports

Who do you think will take each series? Let me know in the comments. #NHL #nhlplayoffs #calemakar #sportsbetting

♬ original sound – Wolveridge Langan

The second round of the NHL Playoffs gets underway tonight. I breakdown my best bets from each series, as well as voicing my predictions on who goes on to the Conference Finals.

All odds referenced are from BetMGM: 

FLORIDA PANTHERS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Series Betting Stats

  • Split their regular season meetings 2-2
  • The OVER/UNDER also split 2-2
  • Florida covered the spread in three of the four games
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: FLA 3-3, TBL 5-2
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: FLA 2-4, TBL 4-3

This is a really tough series to call. I think Florida should walk away with the series win, despite their top players not producing. Carter Verhaeghe leads the Panthers with 12 points, showcasing how deep the offense goes for Florida. Tampa needs more production to keep up, and Andrei Vasilevskiy looked underwhelming in their series against Toronto. The Lightning should keep things close and I like them against the spread in these games, but Florida’s depth should carry them through. 

SERIES PREDICTION: FLORIDA PANTHERS 4-3
SERIES LEAN: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +1.5 (-185)

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS ST. LOUIS BLUES

Series Betting Stats

  • Colorado 2-1 vs St. Louis in the regular season
  • OVER was 3-0 through those games
  • St. Louis covered the spread in two of the three games
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: COL 3-1, STL 3-3
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: COL 3-1, STL 4-2

Colorado really impressed in their series win over an understaffed Nashville team. Despite Binnington backstopping the end of the Blues series effectively, I think this Avalanche offense is a different beast. Bet on Cale Makar to score. Makar had three points in their three matchups against St. Louis this season and already has ten points in the postseason. If you want better odds, the total goal over is also enticing, but I would rather trust Makar’s consistency. 

SERIES PREDICTION: COLORADO AVALANCHE 4-1
SERIES LEAN: CALE MAKAR OVER 0.5 POINTS (-270)

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW YORK RANGERS

Series Betting Stats

  • Carolina was 3-1 against New York this season
  • The OVER was 3-1 in those games
  • Carolina covered the spread in three of the four games
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: CAR 5-1-1, NYR 7-0
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: CAR 3-4, NYR 3-4

The Hurricanes struggle on both the power play and penalty kill does not make this series look easy. Igor Shesterkin also makes this series very problematic for Carolina, but I will put my faith in them to pull through. Goaltending has been the only factor keeping the Rangers involved this postseason and I think the Hurricanes will do better than Pittsburgh at capitalizing on New York’s missteps. I like the low OVER/UNDER lines for this series and expect both of these teams to keep on going OVER. 

SERIES PREDICTION: CAROLINA HURRICANES 4-3
SERIES LEAN: OVER 5.5 TOTAL GOALS (-120)

CALGARY FLAMES VS EDMONTON OILERS

Series Betting Stats

  • Split their regular season meetings 2-2
  • The OVER was 3-1 in those games
  • The spread record was split 2-2
  • O/U Records in the playoffs: CAL 2-4-1, EDM 3-4
  • ATS Records in the playoffs: CAL 2-5, EDM 4-3

Despite taking seven games to eliminate Dallas, Calgary dominated the Stars for most of the series. I like the Flames way more than the Oilers going into the second round. Calgary is more balanced and a much tougher defensive team than Edmonton. I expect the scoring to get back to normal for Calgary, so keeping up with the high-flying Oilers should not be a problem. Nothing jumps out for me on this series betting wise, but McDavid is producing as always. 

SERIES PREDICTION: CALGARY FLAMES 4-2
SERIES LEAN: CONNOR MCDAVID OVER 1.5 POINTS (-125)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

Monday’s Picks: Dodgers on a roll, Makar producing and more to bet

Lots of major sports action is headed our way tonight. Colorado looks to close out Nashville for a sweep, while Memphis needs players to step up for an ailing Ja Morant. I looked through and found my best picks for Monday, which includes a less than fortunate Pirates team. 

Here are my favorite bets for tonight, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The Dodgers continue their NL Central conquest following a three game sweep of the Cubs with another three game stint at home against the Pirates. They’ve won six in a row and are 7-3 in their last ten.

Los Angeles has impressed all season–and for good reason. The Dodgers rank first in the MLB in runs per game (5.08), ERA (2.11) and defensive efficiency (.749). They score a lot and let up even less.

The Pirates are the other side of the coin. 2-8 in their last ten, including a series loss to the lowly Reds. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.78 runs per game, a 4.83 ERA and only .689 in defensive efficiency.

The best spread for the Dodgers is -2.5, a margin they can eclipse and hold with ease. With Julio Urias on the mound to start, the Dodgers should wrap up their first game at home with a comfortable lead. 

PICK: DODGERS -2.5 (+115)

NASHVILLE PREDATORS VS COLORADO AVALANCHE

With the series on the line, the Avs take on the Preds in Nashville for what could be the first series conclusion in the NHL Playoffs. Up 3-0, Colorado has shown they can win anyway they want. Whether it be the seven goal blowouts in Game 1 and 3, or a tightly contested OT win in Game 2.

Regardless of the game plan or game script, Cale Makar will be involved. The top defenseman on the Avalanche notched seven points in their three games, including the game winner in OT. Makar is prolific against Nashville, with points in three out of four of their regular season matchups.

I expect Colorado to win tonight (as most do). To win, they have to score. If they win by one or by five, Cale Makar will be involved in one way or another. Take the OVER on his point total tonight. 

PICK: CALE MAKAR OVER 0.5 POINTS (-225)

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The obvious pick from the NBA  would be the OVER/UNDER on the Bucks-Celtics game. I talked at length on Milwaukee’s great record for the UNDER last Tuesday. For the sake of variety, I’ll pick one from the Grizzlies-Warriors game tonight, but the Milwaukee UNDER is still very much in play.

The Grizzlies continue to be the Ja Morant show in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. He’s averaged 38.3 points per game against the Warriors and over eight assists. Memphis will have to find a way to cope without him, as he’s expected to miss Game 4 with a knee injury.

The good news (for us at least) is the Grizzlies played 20 games this year without Morant. The two highest scorers in his absence are due for stronger games tonight.

Desmond Bane and Dillion Brooks both averaged just over 19 points when Morant was out during the season. So far this series they’ve been unnoticable, with Bane averaging 10 points per game and Brooks missing a game and a half due to an ejection.

Both are shooting under their expected field goal percentage so expect a bounceback night from either one or both players. There is a large points hole to fill with Morant out, Bane and Brooks will be the first options to add scoring. 

PICK: DESMOND BANE OVER 18.5 (-110)/DILLION BROOKS OVER 18.5 (-105)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

Friday’s Picks: Solar powered spread, rocking Boston like a Hurricane and more to bet

More playoff action to start the weekend! After a break last night, the NBA returns, as the NHL and MLB keep cooking. I scoured through the data and picked out my favorite bets for this Friday. A pair of playoff favorites look to go up 3-0, while the strikeout king is active in Cleveland.

Here are my best picks for tonight, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS PHOENIX SUNS

Including their first two playoff games, the Suns continue to dominate the Mavericks. Phoenix won all five games against the Mavericks this season, including a matchup in Dallas. The Suns head to the Lone Star State once again to face the Mavs tonight.

Their games haven’t been particularly close. The Suns keep the Mavericks at arm’s length and have yet to win a game by less than seven.

Dallas has no answer for the Western Conference’s top seed. The Mavs shot better from beyond the arc and boasted a higher effective field goal percentage than their regular season totals in Games 1 and 2. Luka Doncic is shooting efficiently, over 50 percent from the field and averaging 40 points a game. Everything is going well for the Mavericks and they still got outscored by 27 across two games.

A -1.5 spread with underdog odds for one of the best teams against the spread in basketball? Sign me up. Take the Suns to cover for the third game in a row. 

PICK: PHOENIX SUNS -1.5 (+100) 

BOSTON BRUINS VS CAROLINA HURRICANES

Up 2-0 in the series heading to Boston, the Hurricanes sit firmly in the driver’s seat. Pyotr Kochetkov relieving Antti Raanta in Game 2 barely affected Carolina, who outscored Boston 10-3 in their first two games. 

Carolina dominating Boston is nothing new. This season, the Hurricanes swept the Bruins, 3-0. Two of their wins came in Boston, with the Hurricanes putting up 13 goals to the Bruins’ one.

The matchup is a bad one for Boston. The Bruins were one of the worst precision shooting teams in the regular season, ranking second to last in 5-on-5 shooting percentage (6.8%) and third to last in total shooting percentage (8.5). Carolina is excellent at limiting chances, ranking fourth in the NHL in scoring chances allowed while also sporting top four expected and actual goals against numbers.

Boston is shooting even worse this series, converting on only 4.1 percent of their shots. After trouncing them in the first two games, Carolina is an underdog to win tonight. I’ll take the defensive stalwart on a favorable line, especially when the Hurricanes have scored on nearly 17 percent of their shots this series. 

PICK: CAROLINA HURRICANES (+110)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Blue Jays continue their series against the Guardians today following a tightly contested 6-5 loss yesterday.

Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Toronto tonight. Gausman looks like one of the offseason’s best signings and worth every cent of his massive contract. In his five starts this season, Gausman sports a 2.27 ERA, leads the MLB in FIP (0.51) and struck out a whopping 41 batters.

Gausman struck out eight or more in four of his five starts. He constantly puts pitches over the plate, with no walks yet this season. He’s the only starting pitcher with no walks on the year.

The Blue Jays are starting to let Gausman go deeper in games. In his last three starts, he’s pitched eight, six and seven whole innings. With more batters to face and a strikeout line at 6.5, the OVER is almost too obvious. 

PICK: KEVIN GAUSMAN OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (+105)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

Thursday’s Picks: Reigniting the Flames, buried in an Avalanche and more to bet

The NBA takes a break tonight as series switch venues, but the NHL Playoffs continue! Colorado and Calgary should pile on the goals tonight, while the Brewers continue to dominate the worst team in the MLB.

These are my favorite bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS NASHVILLE PREDATORS

No team started their first round playoff series more explosively than the Colorado Avalanche. Five first period goals ended in a 7-2 for the Avs, who play the Predators again at home tonight.

Colorado and Nashville are no strangers to high-scoring matchups. The Avalanche finished the regular season with a 42-35 OVER/UNDER record. The Predators did even better at 49-33.

In the five games played between the two clubs this season, the OVER is 5-0. Nashville backup goalie David Rittich appeared in three of those games, including the Game 1 blowout. Rittich struggles to keep the puck out in relief for Nashville, sustaining a 3.57 GAA and .886 save percentage. The OVER has hit in nine of his last ten starts.

Whether it’s another thumping for the Avalanche or a contested road battle for the Preds, Game 2 will feature loads of scoring tonight. 

PICK: OVER 6.5 GOALS (-125)

CALGARY FLAMES VS DALLAS STARS

In contrast to their fellow Western Conference contenders, the Calgary Flames shutout the Dallas Stars in a hard fought 1-0 victory to take Game 1 of the series. Heading into Game 2 at home, the Flames have won three in a row against the Stars.

The defensive effort saw Calgary outshoot Dallas 26-16, limiting the Stars chances and capitalizing on one of the few they got. A one goal effort is out of character for the Flames, who averaged 3.59 goals a game this season, good for sixth in the NHL.

The advanced analytics support an offensive bounceback for the Flames, who are fourth in the league in expected goals for at 2.41. Including the low-scoring Game 1, Calgary netted 12 goals in four games against Dallas this season.

A good record against the spread (45-38) plus Dallas’ woes on the road (19-21) have the Flames poised for a stronger offensive performance tonight. Take the favorable spread bet at -1.5. 

PICK: CALGARY FLAMES -1.5 (+110)

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS CINCINNATI REDS

On Tuesday, I bet the Brewers to cover the spread against a flailing Reds team. Milwaukee exceeded my expectations, winning Tuesday 6-3, and Wednesday 18-4.

Until the Reds show signs of life, I will continue to favor strong teams against the spread in their games. The Brewers already covered their first two games and are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten.

Adrian Houser gives the Brewers an even better chance in an advantageous pitching matchup. Houser is fresh off a 2 hit, no earned run start. Hunter Greene, who starts for the Reds today, is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA.

With the hitting coming together to support strong pitching, Milwaukee is dangerous for good teams, let alone the lowly Reds. Ride the Brewers at -1.5 once again tonight. 

PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5 (-115)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

Wednesday’s Picks: Feeling Blue(s) in Minnesota, Snakes for the sweep and more to bet

Familiar faces from Monday’s best picks return this Wednesday but with two new twists. A good pitching matchup makes the difference on the road, as well as special teams in the NHL.

An old faithful UNDER in the NBA rounds of my favorite bets of the day, which include all odds referenced from BetMGM:

MIAMI MARLINS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 

After sneaking away with the first two games of the series, the Diamondbacks go for three in a row tonight against the Marlins.

Arizona gave up four runs in the 7th inning in both of their first two games of the series, but held on to win 5-4 in both contests. The starting pitching continues to be excellent for the Diamondbacks, who got 11 shutout innings from Humberto Castellanos and Zac Gallen through the first two games.

Madison Bumgarner draws the start tonight for the Diamondbacks. He’s been efficient to start the season, with a 1.17 ERA and 15 hits through 23 innings pitched. Elieser Hernandez finishes off the series for the Marlins. Hernandez has a 5.75 ERA and 22 hits across four starts.

This is a more than favorable pitching matchup for the Diamondbacks. Getting Bumgarner against Miami’s No.5 starter in Hernandez is a recipe for success. A +135 moneyline is too good to pass up with Arizona starting games as good as they have. The Diamondbacks should sweep tonight off of a strong Bumgarner start. 

PICK: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (+135)

MINNESOTA WILD VS ST. LOUIS BLUES

The St. Louis Blues got a jumpstart in Minnesota on Monday, leading wire-to-wire to take a 1-0 series lead in the first round of the NHL Playoffs. The 4-0 Game 1 win was St. Louis’ fourth win against Minnesota this year. The Blues swept the Wild in the regular season.

Special teams are the difference maker between two teams who matchup well across the rest of the board. St. Louis finished the regular season with the second best power play unit in the NHL (26.47 PP%) and a top five penalty killing unit. Minnesota on the other hand converted on power plays at a rate of 20.95 percent, only good for 17th in the league. Their penalty killing? Even worse at 26th in the league.

To make matters worse, Minnesota averages the third highest penalty minutes per game at 10.9. In Game 1, two of St. Louis’ four goals came on man-up situations.

Unless the Wild can cut back on the penalties, the Blues will run them out of the playoffs in record time. Take St. Louis on the favorable moneyline tonight. 

PICK: ST. LOUIS BLUES (+105)

MIAMI HEAT VS PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

I mentioned in my favorite bets this past Monday that the UNDER was the way to go in Game 1 of the Miami-Philadelphia series. The UNDER hit again in a 106-92 Heat win and I like it once more tonight.

The UNDER is now 4-1 in Miami’s games against the 76ers this year, 6-0 in Heat playoff games and 5-2 in 76er playoff games. What else is there to say?

Along with landing 2nd and 4th in the playoffs for points allowed per game, both teams fall in the top four in opposing field goal percentage and top three in opposing three point percentage.

With Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry still out, the UNDER is good to go again for Game 2 tonight. As with the Bucks UNDER yesterday, ride it until it fails. 

PICK: UNDER 208.5 POINTS (-115)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

Tuesday’s Picks: Making the most of your chances, don’t Buck the trend and more to bet

There’s always more playoff action in May, as both the first round of the NHL Playoffs and second round of the NBA Playoffs continue today. A pair of shutdown teams built for the postseason feature in my favorite bets of Tuesday, with an MLB divisional showdown joining as well.

Here are my best bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

NEW YORK RANGERS VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

To say the Rangers have got the better of the Penguins this season would be an understatement. The Rangers won three of four versus the Penguins in the regular season, taking both games at home. They play in Madison Square Garden tonight in Game 1 of their playoff series.

Pittsburgh averaged 3.32 goals per game (11th) but couldn’t score more than twice in any game against New York in 2022. Igor Shesterkin is the big reason why, leading the NHL in save percentage (.935) and GAA (2.07).

Despite controlling the puck more, shooting more and creating more chances than the Rangers, the Penguins struggle to convert. New York boasts a higher conversion rate at even strength (9.4 shooting percentage to 9.0 for PIT) and a significantly better power-play unit (25.46 to 20.41 PP%).

Without starting goalie Tristen Jarry for the first two games, the Penguins are clear underdogs to a Ranger’s team that should excel when goals are harder to come by. They’ll take Game 1 at home tonight. 

PICK: NEW YORK RANGERS (-125)

BOSTON CELTICS VS MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Last Wednesday, I mentioned the UNDER was undefeated in the Bucks’ postseason games. Their UNDER record is now improved to 6-0, as they look to steal another game from the Celtics in Boston.

Milwaukee’s improved playoff defense continues to dominate opposing teams. They lead the NBA in points allowed this postseason at 94.2. Opposing teams scored 100 points against the Bucks only twice through six playoff games.

Boston’s defense isn’t too shabby either, ranking 5th among remaining teams at 107.4 points allowed per game.

The UNDER will be in play once again. Among all second round playoff teams, only the Mavericks score less than the Bucks and Celtics, who average 108.6 and 108.3 points per game respectively this postseason. 

PICK: UNDER 215.5 POINTS (-115)

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS CINCINNATI REDS

The Brewers batting finally caught up to their pitching. Ranked third in the MLB in ERA (3.01), the Brew Crew rattled off 20 runs over a three game series win against the Chicago Cubs. Milwaukee is 7-3 in their last ten and sitting pretty atop the NL Central.

Already 11.5 games back on the Brewers are the Reds. Cincinnati couldn’t possibly have a worse start to a season. Dead last in the MLB at 3-19 and ranked in the bottom two of almost every major stat. 29th in runs per game, 29th in batting averages, 29th in on base percentage and 30th in ERA, allowing a whopping total of 6.15 earned runs per game.

To make matters worse, the Reds are one of the worst teams against the spread this season, with a 6-16 ATS record. The Brewers are favored (rightfully so) and should pile on the runs against the Reds. Brandon Woodruff opens the pitching for Milwaukee, who are 3-1 against the spread when he starts. 

PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5 (-105)

Check my betting record and track my current bets on Betstamp.  

Monday’s Picks: OVER/UNDER takes center stage in the Heat of the Playoffs

A trio of OVER/UNDER bets make the list today as the NHL Playoffs get underway and the NBA Playoffs continue the second round. Two games in Miami should come down to defensive efforts, while a goal explosion is headed our way up north.

Check out all the details, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

MIAMI HEAT VS PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

James Harden and the rest of the 76ers face their toughest test of the season, heading to Miami without Joel Embiid. The star big man suffered a facial fracture late in the 76ers’ clinching effort against the Toronto Raptors. Embiid will sit Game 1 and 2 at least, as Philadelphia challenges a stellar Heat defense without their top scorer.

Miami, who are without Kyle Lowry for Game 1, exhibited elite defense in their first round takedown of the Hawks. The Heat limited Atlanta to 97.4 PPG, well below their season average.

Albeit with Embiid, the 76ers displayed a strong defense front in round one as well. They held the Raptors to 103.2 PPG over six games, three without the elite defensive presence of Matisse Thybulle. Regardless of outcome, a defensive battle is on the way in this second round matchup.

Low-scoring, defensive-centric games tend to be commonplace for the Heat and 76ers. The UNDER hit in three of their four regular season games, with both teams scoring over 100 points only once.

So far this postseason, the UNDER is 9-2 in Miami and Philadelphia games. Even with some key stars missing from both outfits, I don’t expect the trend to change.

PICK: UNDER 209.5 POINTS (-115)

MIAMI MARLINS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Two of the best pitchers this season face off to start the week in the MLB. Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez’ hot starts go head-to-head on the rubber tonight in South Florida.

Few have started better than Gallen this season. The Diamondbacks’ right hander allowed only one earned run through three starts (against the Dodgers and Mets no less). Gallen only gave up six hits in 15 innings of pitching, which included 14 strikeouts. He’s earned his spot in a strong Diamondbacks rotation currently 10th in ERA at 3.28.

Lopez has been equally as excellent for the Marlins. Across four starts, Lopez recorded three wins and only one earned run. 23.1 innings pitched, 13 hits and 23 strikeouts for Lopez, who makes up the Marlins elite pitching rotation (5th in ERA: 3.10). The opposing team has yet to score more than a run in games Lopez starts.

A pitching duel is more than expected tonight, as the Marlins and Diamondbacks rely on strong arms to boost weak bats. Both are in the bottom half of the MLB in Runs per Game, with Arizona only averaging 3.09.

Miami and Arizona have a combined 11-28-1 O/U record, which comes to no surprise. Take the UNDER with star pitching on the mound. 

PICK: UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-105)

MINNESOTA WILD VS ST. LOUIS BLUES

A classic Western Conference shootout is on the way between the Wild and Blues, who start their first round playoff series in Minnesota. Great goaltending down the stretch from Victor Husso and newly-acquired Marc-Andre Fleury will take a backseat to two of the most explosive offenses this season.

St. Louis and Minnesota love to score goals. Both teams rank in the top five of Goals per Game with the Blues having the edge at 3.77 to 3.72. We got a sneak preview on this playoff series as the Wild and Blues met three times this season. The Blues took all three, but 28 total goals were scored during the process.

The OVER is 3-0 in Wild-Blues games this season and O6.5 goals tonight gets favorable +100 odds. I know it’s harder to score in playoff hockey, but with a strong history of shootouts and great odds, the OVER seems like a no-brainer selection. 

PICK: OVER 6.5 GOALS (+100)

Friday’s Picks: Bet on All Things Baseball

It’s an all-baseball Friday! After looking at multiple matchups, I found not one, not two, but three spread bets with great value in the MLB. The Big League’s best go to work in my favorite bets to kick start the weekend.

Check out all the details, with all odds referenced from BetMGM:

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Three of the best teams in baseball right now reside in the NL West and the Giants are one of them. San Francisco is currently 2nd in the MLB in ERA (2.32) and 5th in Runs per Game (4.79), which both contribute to their division-leading 13-6 record.

The Giants draw the Nationals today for the start of two teams’ second series of the year. Washington continues to struggle this season, falling in the bottom five for ERA (5.01) and Runs per Game (3.19).

San Francisco is 11-8 Against the Spread this season, another sharp contrast to Washington, who sport a 6-14 ATS record through 20 games. In their first series in Washington, the Giants won all three games, covering in each one.

A bounceback win following a tough loss to the Athletics is due for the Giants. After outsourcing the Nationals 24-6 in their first series, expect the same or better out of San Francisco at home. 

PICK: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -1.5 (-105)

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Speaking of NL West powerhouses, the Padres top ten offense delivered in three straight wins against the Reds. San Diego is 8th in the MLB in Runs per Game (4.55) and 5th in OBP (.329) following 24 total runs in their series against Cincinnati.

The Padres also have one of the best records Against the Spread (13-7) heading into their series with the Pirates. Pittsburgh struggled to get runs on the board against the Brewers, who swept them for the second time this year. The Pirates were held to two runs or less in five of their six games against the Brewers.

To make matters worse, Zach Thompson starts on the mound today for Pittsburgh. Thompson has had a less than stellar start to the season, allowing 20 hits and 12 earned runs through 10 innings pitched.

Yu Darvish starts today for the Padres. Darvish looks elite in his last 12 innings, giving up only five hits and one earned run while striking out 15. This included a scoreless six innings against the Dodgers, one of the best offenses in the league.

San Diego is one of the best teams Against the Spread this season for a reason and Darvish gets a lopsided pitching matchup in their first game against Pittsburgh. They should cover on the road today. 

PICK: SAN DIEGO PADRES -1.5 (-105)

NEW YORK YANKEES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Two times now I’ve bet with the Yankees bullpen and two times their slugging made me pay. New York is one the most balanced teams in baseball and are playing lights out. They have the 3rd best ERA in the league at 2.92, but also rank among the top ten in Runs per Game (4.47) and Batting Average (.246).

Winners of six straight, and wins in eight of their last ten, the Yankees are red hot enroute to Kansas City today.

The Royals will attempt to stop the streak with Kris Bubic on the mound for the first game of the series. Bubic struggled in his first three starts, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits in seven innings pitched. The Royals haven’t been much better, falling in the bottom third of the MLB in Runs per Game, Batting Average, OBP and ERA.

Nestor Cortes Jr., who has been excellent for the Yankees this season, draws the start tonight. Over 15 innings, Cortes Jr. allowed only two runs and seven hits, striking out 25 in the process.

Their balanced offense and defense should propel the Yankees to a 7th win in a row. After covering in their last four, New York will improve to 12-8 Against the Spread tonight. 

PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES -1.5 (-120)

Thursday’s Picks: Flaming Hot in Minnesota, Cold Shooting in the North and more to bet

In tonight’s major sports action, a pair of moneyline bets in the North caught my eye. In the MLB, an American League divisional matchup seems primed to go UNDER again. After looking through all the matchups, I picked out a few of my favorites this Thursday.

Here’s my best bets of the day, with all odds referenced from BetMGM: 

CALGARY FLAMES VS MINNESOTA WILD

Name a team hotter than the Calgary Flames right now. You can’t. Winners of three straight and boasting a 8-1-1 record in their last ten, the Flames are peaking at the right time. Calgary sits atop the Pacific Division with only two games left in the regular season, soon to be one after a date with the Minnesota Wild tonight.

Calgary’s high octane offense, which averages 3.60 goals and 35.53 shots per game (6th and 3rd in the NHL respectively), is humming during their past ten games. The Flames scored four or more goals in eight of their last ten, including nine on Arizona and six on Vancouver.

The Flames own the Wild this season. In their back-to-back meetings at the end of February, Calgary won both games, out-scoring Minnesota 12-4. The Wild are favored tonight, at home,  at -120.

I like Calgary to take the win in Minnesota. Along with the Flames dominant record against them, the Wild may be without key contributors Mats Zuccarello (24 goals, 79 points) and Jared Spurgeon (39 points). Take the favorable moneyline for Calgary tonight. 

PICK: CALGARY FLAMES (+105)

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS NEW YORK YANKEES

Bruce Zimmerman returns to the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight in an effort to stave off a sweep from the New York Yankees. Zimmerman blanked the Yankees in a 5-0 win earlier this month. The lefty allowed only four hits and struck out six in a five-inning effort.

Expect another low scoring matchup in New York tonight. The Orioles and Yankees sport two of the best records against the OVER in the MLB. Baltimore hit the UNDER in 12 of their 17 games, while New York managed it in 11 of 17. The UNDER is 4-1 in all of the NYY-BAL games this season.

Jameson Taillon draws the start from the Yankees’ 2.85 ERA (3rd in the MLB) bullpen. The UNDER hit in Taillon’s last start against the Orioles and he’s 3-0 against the OVER this season.

New York’s 12-8 win two days ago is a blooper among a consistent history. Zimmerman and Taillon should keep both offenses in check tonight. 

PICK: UNDER 8 RUNS (-110)

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS TORONTO RAPTORS

The Raptors flipped the script on the 76ers, who seemed destined to finish the first round series in four games. Heading back to Toronto, the Raptors appear to have solved the Sixers defensively, as they look to tie up the series tonight.

After a 131 point explosion in Game 1, the Raptors limited the Sixers to less points every game. Their 103-88 win in Game 5 was not only the lowest total for Philadelphia offensively, but the largest point margin for Toronto this series.

Affecting the 76ers shooting has paid dividends for the Raptors. Philadelphia shot over 50% from the field and from three in Game 1. In Game 5? 38.3% from the floor and 27% from beyond the arc. Increased minutes for Thaddeus Young off the bench (four steals in the last two games) played a part in Toronto dominating the turnover battle. After committing only three in Game 1, the 76ers have 14 or more TOs in Games 2-5.

With Matisse Thybulle unable to travel to Canada for Game 6, I expect Toronto to force a Game 7 in Philadelphia. With a favorable moneyline at home, betting on the Raptors is an easy decision. 

PICK: TORONTO RAPTORS (+105)